Yesterday, Anthony Pompliano shared a hypothesis from Fidelity that the price of Bitcoin could reach $100 million by 2035.
Fidelity gave a presentation to clients recently that showed a bitcoin model that reached $100 million bitcoin price by 2035.
Wall Street is catching on. This is a historic moment we are living in.
Check out Wall Street’s logic 👇🏼https://t.co/LHExyEx344
— Pomp 🌪 (@APompliano) August 31, 2021
Obviously, this is only a hypothesis, not least because it is actually impossible to make realistic predictions about what the price of BTC might be in 14 years’ time, but while it may seem far-fetched it actually makes sense.
Which are the cycles of Bitcoin
Looking at Bitcoin’s four 4-year cycles to date, any continuation of the trend could take the price towards similar heights in the coming years.
The first cycle, which began on 3 January 2009 with the first mined block on Bitcoin’s blockchain, ended in November 2012 with the first halving, lasting around 3 years and 10 months. In this cycle, the price went from an initial known value of $0.06, around mid-2010, to a final value of around $12, with a peak at around $15.
The second cycle, which started after the first halving in November 2012, ended in July 2016 with the second halving. The price had risen from $12 to around $660, with a peak of over $1,100.
The third cycle, which started after the second halving, ended in May 2020 with the third halving. The price rose from $660 to around $8,700, with a peak of almost $20,000.
We are now in the fourth cycle, during which the price has risen from around $8,700 to over $47,000, with a peak of almost $65,000. However, we know that it has not yet ended and will probably end in early 2024.
Therefore, the first cycle saw an increase of almost 20,000%, the second almost 5,500%, and the third over 1,200%, with the fourth seeing a high of 644% higher than the initial price.
Bitcoin price predictions
Assuming that future cycles also average about 3 years and 10 months, like the past ones, three or four more cycles should occur until 2035.
Should the overall trend of these cycles be substantially similar to those of the past, a projection of Bitcoin’s price to $100 million would not appear impossible.
Fidelity’s Bitcoin prediction
This projection was made by Fidelity, which is one of the world’s largest asset managers with $4.9 trillion in assets under management and is also heavily exposed to crypto markets with its affiliate Fidelity Digital Assets.
Probably the only real reason Pompliano decided to share this projection is precisely because the source is Fidelity, otherwise, it would have been a simple gamble.
If on one hand Fidelity is now so involved with cryptocurrencies as to have an interest in their value rising, on the other hand it would definitely have a lot to lose in the long run if it appeared as an unserious company with a preference for gambling.
It’s true that such a projection could be forgotten over the next few years if it turns out to be wrong, but these are things that usually come up once they are made public, because there is always some detractor who remembers them if they turn out to be wrong.
Pompliano, Fidelity and Bitcoin
According to Pompliano, there is the possibility that Fidelity has decided to bet on Bitcoin and this could constitute a precedent of strong impact on the US financial markets, so much so that it could also constitute an example perhaps followed by other large fund managers.
On the other hand, as mentioned some time ago, when the Fed decides to create huge amounts of dollars out of thin air, perhaps just as one of Bitcoin’s halvings takes place, it is inevitable that savers, or those who manage large investment funds, will look to Bitcoin as a possible alternative.