Arthur Hayes argues that the ongoing expansion of the money supply could drive the Bitcoin rally until 2026. After the record of $124,000 reached in August 2025, the analysis focuses on a multi-year horizon, not just short-term fluctuations.
Summary
TL;DR
According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and current CIO of Maelstrom, the global expansion of the money supply could extend the crypto bull cycle until 2026. After the record of Bitcoin at approximately $124,000 in August 2025, the analysis points to a multi-year scenario, where high volatility persists and historical drawdowns have at times exceeded 70%. Some details about the conversation, including links and transcripts, will be updated as soon as available.
Why Bitcoin Hasn’t Concluded Its Rally According to Arthur Hayes?
The global money printing machine shows no signs of slowing down. Data and analyses from international institutions indicate that global liquidity has remained high in recent years, a phenomenon also documented by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
According to public data from CoinDesk and Glassnode, the price peak at around $124,000 in August 2025 corresponded to a market capitalization of approximately $2.4 trillion and an increase in on-chain indicators such as net transfer volume. Market analysts note that, in similar cycles, the behavior of institutional investors tends to amplify both rallies and drawdowns.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and current CIO of Maelstrom, believes that this mechanism could support Bitcoin and the entire crypto market until 2026. In an interview released in September 2025 with Kyle Chassé, Hayes explained how an accommodative monetary and fiscal policy—highlighted by the continuity of measures adopted during the second term of Donald Trump, as reported by CoinGape and AMBCrypto—could channel additional liquidity towards risky assets, including Bitcoin.
In brief: 6 key points
- Conversation between Arthur Hayes and Kyle Chassé, released in September 2025.
- Projection: if the expansive trend of monetary policy persists, the crypto bull cycle could extend until 2026.
- Market data: Bitcoin reached approximately $124,000 in August 2025, confirmed by various price aggregators.
- Macro driver: expansive fiscal and monetary policies, with particular reference to the context of recent American policy, generate a large flow of liquidity towards risk assets.
- Risk scenario: possibility of a “blow-off top” before the end of the cycle, with potential profit-taking in the extreme phase.
- Evaluation horizon: the focus is on multi-year cycles rather than weekly movements.
Why Money Printing Can Prolong the Crypto Rally
Hayes observes that the expansion of the money supply directs increasing liquidity towards higher-risk assets, such as Bitcoin and some large cap tech. His thesis is based on a historical trend: in phases where monetary and fiscal policy are particularly accommodative – as highlighted by the forecasts for Donald Trump’s second term – investors tend to increase risk-taking and evaluate assets over multi-year horizons.
If governments were to launch further spending programs from the second half of 2026, the stimulating effect could extend; conversely, shocks related to real rates, inflation, or credit crises could interrupt the momentum earlier than expected. In this context, sensitivity to regime changes remains high.
Bitcoin vs traditional assets: what changes with inflation
Hayes compares Bitcoin with stocks, real estate, and gold, evaluating their returns in real terms and considering currency debasement. According to him, BTC proves robust against many traditional benchmarks, although some US big tech companies have benefited from liquidity expansion and strong earnings growth.
Performance in real terms
- US Stocks: growing in nominal terms, but not always outperforming gold, especially when considering the effects of debasement since 2008.
- Real estate: in periods of high inflation, the return on real estate often proves to be lower than that of precious metals and Bitcoin.
- Bitcoin: described by Hayes as a “faster horse,” capable of outperforming in contexts of massive monetary expansion, albeit with significantly more pronounced price fluctuations.
Risk Numbers and Historical Context
To read the cycle more clearly, it is useful to report some historical data:
| Asset | Historical Drawdowns | Annualized Volatility (historical) | Notes |
| ——————– | ————————————————————– | ——————————— | ————————————————————————————————————————————– |
| Bitcoin | -77% / -85% in 2018 and 2014‑15 cycles; up to -93% in 2011 | 50%‑100% depending on the cycle |
| Gold | Bear phases also of -45% (years 2011‑2015) | ~10%‑20% | Typically defensive benchmark |
| US Stocks (S&P 500) | Up to -57% in the 2008‑2009 crisis; -34% in 2020 | ~15%‑25% | Depends on earnings and credit cycles |
| Real Estate (USA) | Local drawdowns over -30% in tightening phases | Variable | Sensitive to real rates |
Timeline and scenarios until 2026
- Today: the focus is on indicators such as inflation, growth, and global liquidity; the crypto sentiment is bolstered by Bitcoin’s recent record.
- In the coming quarters: potential volatility is expected due to geopolitical events and risks on the credit front.
- Mid 2026: according to Hayes, if the public spending horizon were to expand further, the bull cycle could extend.
- End of cycle: the risk of a “blow-off top” increases, with the possibility of a subsequent capitulation phase if liquidity should contract.
Risks and Counterpoints
- High volatility: Bitcoin has historically alternated between strong upward movements and significant corrections.
- Non-linear monetary policy: the effectiveness of rate cuts can vary, especially if central banks reallocate liquidity to other sectors.
- Independent opinions: studies by institutions such as the BIS highlight the complexity of the link between crypto and global liquidity, suggesting that this relationship is subject to multiple variables.
- Exogenous factors: geopolitical shocks, new regulations, and cyber threats can unexpectedly impact the market.
Strategy Derived from Hayes’ Analysis
Hayes emphasizes the importance of adopting a multi-year horizon to evaluate Bitcoin, suggesting to avoid decisions based on weekly movements. In situations of extreme euphoria, some investors might partially take profits, but the strategy remains to have patience and attention to macroeconomic drivers. That said, discipline remains central throughout the entire cycle.
FAQ
Can the crypto cycle last until 2026? According to Hayes, the hypothesis is plausible if monetary printing and public spending continue expansively, although uncertainties related to politics and geopolitical risks remain.
Is Bitcoin stronger than stocks and gold? Hayes highlights that, over a multi-year timeframe and considering the effects of currency debasement, Bitcoin has historically outperformed other assets, despite showing much wider fluctuations.
What is the main point of focus? The importance lies in the analysis of macroeconomic cycles and global liquidity, rather than on short-term events.
