Bitcoin: 2015 vs 2019

A comparison of the average price of bitcoin in 2015 and in 2019 reveals that the year before the third bitcoin halving was significantly better than the year before the second halving. 

The first bitcoin halving took place in 2012. The following year, 2013, the first big speculative bubble took place, which brought the price from just over $10 to over $1,100. The following year, 2014, the bubble burst, and the price plunged to $289. 

But even in the following year, in 2015, the price dropped again to $172. 

Considering the average annual value, calculated as the average of daily average values, 2013 ended with an average value of only about $250, while in 2014 this rose to more than 500, thanks to the growth at the end of 2013. 

In 2015, however, the average value fell to around $270, a loss of 48% compared to the previous year.

In 2016 the next halving took place. The following year, 2017, the second big speculative bubble occurred, raising the price from less than $800 to $20,000. 

This pattern was in some ways similar to that of 2012/2013, and in 2018 the price collapsed, as it did in 2014. 

Considering average prices, 2017 closed just under $4,000, while in 2018 the average value rose to about $7,500. 

So far the trend of the second cycle of the halving seemed very similar to that of the first. 

If this trend had continued in 2019, we would have expected the average price to collapse, as it did in 2015, but it did not. 

In fact, the average price of BTC in 2019 was just under $7,400, a loss over the previous year of only two percentage points. 

Also, when comparing the average price in 2015 with the year of the bubble, 2013, the average price increased by only 7%, while in 2019 the average price was 86% higher than in the year of the bubble, 2017.

In other words, comparing 2015, the year after the first big bubble burst, with 2019, the year after the second big bubble burst, it can be said that 2019 was definitely better than 2015. 

Moreover, in terms of average annual values, both the years of the two bubbles, 2013 and 2017, and the years of the two bursts, 2014 and 2018, show differences that are not as pronounced compared to the values of the previous or subsequent years such as those that occurred between 2019 and 2015. 

Given that the cases examined are only two, it is not possible to identify which of the two years between 2015 and 2019 should be considered as an anomaly, and it is not even possible to use them as a prerequisite to predict the evolution of the trend of the price of bitcoin in the coming years, however, the difference is too obvious to be ignored. 

Besides, 2019 should be considered a positive year for bitcoin, regardless of the previous analysis, while 2015 was not.

Surely it is not possible to be certain that this cycle will continue to repeat itself from 2020 when the third halving will take place, although it is possible to say with certainty that the year before the third halving was better for bitcoin than the year before the second halving.