The lawsuit between the SEC and Ripple will end between August and September 2022. The lawyer Jeremy Hogan who is following the case (although he is not Ripple’s lawyer) is convinced of this.
The lawsuit between the SEC and Ripple will not end in April
He explained this in a video on his Youtube channel where he analyzed the current situation postponing his initial prediction that the lawsuit could end in April 2022.
In the video, he actually says that this prediction had been far too optimistic.
The problem is that there have been several postponements due to the Omicron variant and half of the 16 depositions that had to be done are still missing. The deadline for expert testimony that was supposed to expire in these days, has been postponed to February 28. Ripple itself agreed to postpone this deadline.
Ripple could have asked to do the depositions via Zoom, but eight depositions are still missing, and the February 28 date was probably already a compromise made with the SEC. This is the third adjournment for this case.
Speaking of an end date, Jeremy Hogan’s analysis is based on comparisons to other cases followed by the same judge. He notes that after the deposition deadline it will take 5 months to have the “briefing schedule”, a kind of statement of reasons in which the parties should convince the judge that they are right, so it will have to wait until July. Only after the briefing can the judge’s decision be made, but this also takes time. That’s why, after the briefing deposition, the judge will take some time for his decision, which will take place in August or September 2022. Unless Ripple and the SEC come to an agreement to move up the timeline.
Hogan says he is certain that the SEC has no reason to move up the timeline, so his prediction is that it may take until September 2022.
According to Jeremy Hogan, while Ripple has every interest in finishing this lawsuit soon, the SEC has every interest in dragging it out for a very simple reason: it fears losing. If that happens, according to the lawyer, the SEC could lose its power over cryptocurrencies.
The comparison between Ripple and Telegram
On his Twitter profile, Jeremy Hogan also discussed the similarities and differences between the case of Ripple and that of Telegram. Telegram was supposed to launch its blockchain and the related GRAM token, but the SEC’s hostility led it to abandon the project.
According to John Deaton, founder of Crypto Law US, the explanation is simple:
“If the SEC believes all XRP are securities then why does it allow all of these illegal sales? Why not seek a preliminary injunction to stop all sales like it did in Telegram?
The answer is clear: the SEC doesn’t believe in its own case theory. The lawsuit was used as a weapon”.
Even Jeremy Hogan seems to be convinced that the SEC, in preparing the lawsuit against Ripple, did not believe that XRP should be defined as a security nor that it would be able to prove it.
Maybe it was all a showdown. Maybe the SEC wanted to show its muscle. Certainly, the fact that some time ago the president Gary Gensler did not answer a specific question during an interview with CNBC, suggests that probably the SEC does not have clear ideas and let a judge decide, in a ruling that, when it comes, will write the history of the sector.
The price of XRP
In the meantime, XRP seems to have definitely distanced itself from Ripple’s legal affairs. News about the lawsuit no longer seems to undermine the price trend.
XRP is currently trading at 74 cents on the dollar, after a tumultuous month, as it has been for the entire crypto sector.
Ripple’s token seems to be more affected by market fluctuations than by the legal events surrounding it. This is at least until the ruling is issued that could reassure investors or throw the entire XRP project definitively overboard.