Ieri anche Grayscale ha presentato alla SEC la richiesta aggiornata per l’emissione di un suo ETF su Ethereum spot sulle borse USA.
Now in theory all applicants should have been able to submit updated requests according to the feedback provided by the SEC, so much so that the agency should make a decision today.
Summary
The expiration
Today, in fact, the deadline by which the SEC must respond to VanEck regarding its request to issue an ETF on Ethereum spot on the US exchanges expires.
As it was already the case for Bitcoin, the agency will almost certainly proceed with a mass approval of all requests in this regard, should it intend to proceed with the approval.
In the case where it opts for a rejection of VanEck’s request, it might not necessarily rule on the other requests, even though the others will expire in the coming weeks.
Il fatto che proprio pochi giorni prima della scadenza abbia fornito a tutti i richiedenti un feedback per consentire loro di presentare richieste aggiornate approvabili fa pensare che oggi la SEC possa annunciare di averle approvate tutte, o perlomeno tutte quelle che hanno i requisiti per essere approvate.
The spot Ethereum ETF by Grayscale
Grayscale already has a publicly traded fund entirely invested in ETH spot.
It’s called Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) and it has existed since 2017.
However, this fund is not an ETF, and it is not listed on the stock exchange: it is traded only OTC.
It has an AUM of just under 11 billion dollars, and owns more than 2.9 million ETH.
It is possible that, just as happened with the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), once transformed into an ETF, it may lose much of its AUM due to massive liquidations of ETH.
Basti pensare che fino al 10 gennaio GBTC possedeva quasi 610.000 BTC, mentre da allora ha liquidato 320.000 BTC una volta trasformatosi in ETF.
Just think that until January 10, GBTC owned almost 610,000 BTC, while since then it has liquidated 320,000 BTC once it transformed into an ETF.
Despite this, its current AUM is still almost double that of the Grayscale Ethereum Trust.
Tuttavia è assolutamente probabile che, nel caso in cui ETHE liquidasse una gran quantità di ETH, questi finirebbero per essere indirettamente ricomprati dagli altri nuovi ETF su Ethereum spot, facendo sì che la quantità complessiva di ETH posseduti dagli ETF possa in realtà persino aumentare.
For example, compared to the 610,000 BTC held by GBTC before the launch of the new ETFs, now the four new main ETFs alone, excluding GBTC, collectively own more than 520,000 BTC, which is much more than the 320,000 liquidated by Grayscale.
Grayscale: The impact on the price of ETH of the new Ethereum spot ETFs
It is not easy to precisely imagine what impact the probable launch of spot Ethereum ETFs on US exchanges might have on the price of ETH.
For now, the mere news of probable approval has pushed the price up from $3,100 to $3,800, but this is only a +22% following a -24% from the March highs.
The comparison with Bitcoin does not help, because what drove up the price of BTC between the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024 was also and above all the anticipation for the halving, which in Ethereum does not exist.
In other words, the ETF have certainly helped the price of Bitcoin to rise from less than $30,000 to more than $60,000 in less than six months, but their role has been to magnify a growing trend very likely already in place due to the anticipation for the April halving.
In the absence of a goal like the halving, the prezzo di Ethereum had not yet entered a bull trend again when the news of the possible approval was published, and combining this with the fact that such approval is still not at all certain, the impact on the price was minimal.
A dire il vero molti analisti sostengono che l’approvazione degli ETF su Ethereum spot non sia ancora del tutto prezzata, e che quindi in caso oggi di conferma si potrebbe assistere ad una nuova risalita del prezzo di ETH.
The medium-term trend
At this moment the key point seems to be the 4,000$.
It is a level that since the bear-market of 2022 has been reached only once in mid-March of this year, and only for four consecutive days.
Moreover, this year has been reached because Bitcoin has dragged the entire crypto market upwards.
Note that the all-time high of 2021 is still far away, because since then the $4,900 has not even been approached.
The hypothesis circulating is that the price of ETH could have the strength to climb back above $4,000, in case of ETF approval, but also that after a possible spike it could retrace due to profit-taking.
However, this mainly concerns the medium-short term, because in the medium-long term things could be different.
In fact, several analysts argue that, in the event of a continuation of the bullrun, Ethereum also has the potential to update its all-time highs, and perhaps even move above $5,000.
The fact is that the new ETFs could help support, or even amplify, a potential upward trend in the price of ETH in the medium term, and this could also be enough to allow it to challenge the historical highs.
