The latest analyses by Goldman Sachs highlight a possible 5% decline in the US stock market in the coming months, a scenario attributed to the most recent tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.
These latter could indeed negatively affect corporate earnings. However, experts believe that the tariffs on Canada and Mexico may be temporary.
Summary
The effect of the new tariffs on the United States economy (USA) according to Goldman Sachs: what does Trump have to do with it?
According to Goldman Sachs strategists, the latest tariff measures could exert significant pressure on corporate earnings. Companies listed in the S&P 500 index could experience a direct impact, with an estimated 5% decrease in stock value.
This decline reflects the growing concerns of investors regarding the additional costs that companies will have to face to import goods subject to tariffs.
The tariffs, in fact, not only increase costs for companies, but could also reduce the competitiveness of U.S. businesses in international markets.
David Kostin, chief equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, emphasized how these dynamics could lead to a downward revision of earnings forecasts for many companies, contributing to a more cautious sentiment among investors.
A key element of the current economic scenario is represented by the trade relations between the United States, Canada, and Mexico.
Despite global trade tensions, Goldman Sachs believes that the tariffs imposed on these two countries could be temporary in nature. This hypothesis is based on the possibility of negotiations that could lead to an easing of trade restrictions.
The relationship with Canada and Mexico is particularly relevant, given the importance of the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement), the trade agreement that replaced NAFTA.
Any significant change to this agreement could have repercussions on key sectors such as automotive, agriculture, and technology. However, optimism about a temporary solution could provide some stability to the bull and bear markets.
The risk analysis for investors
For investors, the current context represents a complex challenge. On one hand, tariffs could reduce company profit margins, negatively affecting stock prices. On the other hand, geopolitical uncertainty fuels market instability.
Goldman Sachs emphasizes that the risk of a further decline in the stock market is real, especially if tariffs were to persist or intensify.
Investors might consider portfolio diversification strategies to mitigate exposure to particularly sensitive sectors, such as the manufacturing industry and energy.
A crucial aspect of Goldman Sachs’ analyses concerns the impact of tariffs on corporate earnings forecasts.
Earnings growth estimates for 2023 could be revised downward, particularly for companies that heavily depend on imports subject to tariffs.
Companies operating in sectors such as technology and consumer goods could be among the most affected, as they often rely on global supply chains.
An increase in production costs could result in higher prices for consumers, with potential impacts on demand.
