The speech of the president of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, at the economic symposium in Jackson Hole (August 22, 2025) has shone a spotlight on the financial markets — and, more surprisingly, on cryptocurrencies.
In that annual event, Powell provided a message anchored in prudence, but also open to the idea of a possible rate cut as early as September, triggering immediate reactions on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).
Summary
1. Powell’s speech: precarious balance and tariffs under scrutiny
Powell described the U.S. labor market as “a curious balance”: while remaining strong in terms of employment — with an unemployment rate stable around 4.2% — both supply and demand for labor are weakening, increasing the risk of a sudden rise in unemployment.
He added that tariffs are pushing prices upward, but he considers it possible that such effects may prove to be transitory, to be managed with caution .
On the front of future decisions, it was stated that, with monetary policy already restrictive, the overall framework and “the shift in the balance of risks could justify an adjustment of the stance,” thus opening up the possibility of a rate cut in the September meeting.
2. Reaction of traditional markets
The stock futures reacted positively, with the S&P 500 opening slightly up, anticipating that Powell’s words signal a potential monetary easing. Bull pushes were especially seen on assets sensitive to the cost of money and on the reduction of the risk premium.
3. Immediate effects on Bitcoin and Ethereum
The response of the crypto-market was swift, but mixed:
- Bitcoin recorded an increase of around 1.2%, hovering around $114,900 after the speech—a positive reaction reflecting the inflow of liquidity favorable to risk assets.
- Ethereum, on the other hand, gained almost 5%, reaching approximately $4,484, also supported by a market more inclined to risk.
This push confirms how criptovalute remain highly sensitive to signals of monetary easing and a weakening of the dollar.
4. The expectations before the speech: nervousness and tactical positioning
In the days leading up to Powell’s intervention, the crypto markets had shown signs of nervousness.
Bitcoin had fallen by about 10% from its all-time high of $124,290 (August 14), while in the derivatives markets there was an increase in bearish (put) positions, with crypto ETFs experiencing a net outflow of 1.9 billion dollars and options indicating strong downside protection .
Investors were playing the classic “sell the rumor, buy the news”: sell before the speech and buy afterwards — in case the tone turned out to be less rigid than expected .
5. Brief technical analysis (Bitget chart)
The charts you shared clearly show two dizzying green candles for BTC and ETH, a visual signal of an immediate and sharp bull reaction post-speech.
- BTC: recovery from around $112,600 to over $115,700.
- ETH: jump from about $4,200 to $4,600.
These movements reflect the flow of long orders generated by the Fed’s implicit openness towards lower rates. Extremely high RSI is a signal of overbought conditions, thus possible phases of technical consolidation in the coming days.
6. Possible scenarios for the coming weeks
| Scenario | Bitcoin (BTC) | Ethereum (ETH) | Macro conditions |
| Bull | Towards $120,000+ | Push beyond $5,000 | Fed confirms cut, favorable data |
| Neutral/Sideways | Between $113k and $115k | Between $4,400 and $4,600 | Fed vague, mixed data |
| Bear | Retraces below $110k | Falls towards $4,200 | Strong data, Fed more cautious |
7. Connections with structural trends
The micro-dynamics of crypto do not occur in a vacuum—here are some structural trends that enhance the impact of Powell:
- Narrative of “digital gold”: Bitcoin grows as an alternative store of value in contexts of accommodative policies.
- Ethereum and spot ETF: any bullish wind on cryptocurrencies can attract flows towards Ethereum — especially with spot ETFs on the rise.
- High crypto-equity correlation: by now cryptocurrencies and stock markets share macro drivers, making Powell a relevant catalyst for both worlds.
8. Conclusion
Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole opened the door to a possible rate cut as early as September — a powerful signal that triggered an immediate response from traditional markets and cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin and Ethereum reacted with intraday rallies, reflecting widespread optimism towards a less restrictive Fed.
The coming days will be decisive: if the macro data confirms the accommodative framework, the crypto could gain momentum towards new highs. Otherwise, a sideways or bear phase of consolidation is likely.
In every scenario, one thing is clear: in 2025, Bitcoin and Ethereum are no longer isolated — they have become direct and influential sensors of monetary policy choices!
