- Price at 101,766.26 USDT 4 below all daily EMAs, bearish pressure remains.
- Daily RSI 32.93 4 momentum leans lower; short-term bounce possible but upside limited.
- MACD histogram -798.46 4 negative momentum confirms the down tilt.
- Bitcoin crypto news: daily structure favors sellers until price reclaims the 20/50 EMAs.
Summary
Multi-timeframe analysis 7 Bitcoin technical analysis
D1 (daily)
Close: 101,766.26 USDT. Price sits below the EMA20 (109,180.18), EMA50 (111,620.73), and EMA200 (109,068.72). This alignment shows that sellers control the trend on the daily chart.
RSI14: 32.93 4 below 50 signals a bearish bias and limited upside momentum for now.
MACD: line -2,264.01 vs signal -1,465.56, histogram -798.46. The negative histogram confirms downward momentum is active on daily timeframe.
Bollinger Bands: mid 109,069.45, lower 102,449.73. The close is slightly below the lower band, indicating overnight sell-side volatility and potential short-term exhaustion.
ATR14: 3,636.86 4 higher daily volatility; use wide stops if trading the D1 range.
Pivot: PP 101,034.35, R1 103,101.91, S1 99,698.71. The current close is above the central pivot, which suggests small intraday support near the PP but overall risk stays to the downside.
H1 (hourly)
Close 101,766.25 vs EMA20 102,208.71 and EMA50 104,123.24 4 price is under short EMAs, showing an intraday bearish tilt.
RSI14: 42.47 4 below 50 but not deeply oversold; momentum is mild and could swing on volume shifts.
MACD: line -772.38, signal -1,048.93, histogram 276.55. A positive histogram while both lines are negative implies a recovery attempt intraday, but higher-timeframe trend remains against it.
Bollinger: mid 101,779.83, upper 103,913.30, lower 99,646.35 4 price near the middle band, suggesting consolidation on the hourly chart.
ATR14: 1,125.90 4 intraday volatility is moderate; use intraday ATR for shorter stop placement.
M15 (15-min)
Close 101,747.55 vs EMA20 101,790.57 and EMA50 101,758.43 4 price is marginally under short EMAs, showing a tight micro compression.
RSI14: 50.44 4 neutral; short-term balance between buyers and sellers could lead to a breakout.
MACD: line 142.71, signal 179.03, histogram -36.33 4 a slightly negative histogram after a bullish cross suggests fade risk if momentum dies.
Bollinger: mid 101,941.73, lower 101,593.67 4 price near the lower band indicates short-term pressure but also potential for a quick mean reversion.
ATR14: 350.98 4 use small stops for scalps; expect quick swings.
Synthesis: D1 is bearish with confirming RSI and MACD; H1 looks cautiously bearish-to-neutral, and M15 shows compression that could produce a short-lived bounce. Overall, be cautious while the daily EMAs cap upside.
Key levels
| Level | Type | Bias/Note |
|---|---|---|
| 109,180.18 USDT | EMA20 (D1) | Resistance 6 daily sellers likely to defend EMA20 |
| 111,620.73 USDT | EMA50 (D1) | Major resistance 6 multi-week trend barrier EMA50 |
| 109,068.72 USDT | EMA200 (D1) | Trend reference 6 reclaiming it would reduce daily bearishness |
| 102,449.73 USDT | Bollinger lower (D1) | Volatility support 6 close below signals expansion down |
| 101,034.35 USDT | Pivot PP (D1) | Short-term support; break below increases bearish risk |
| 103,101.91 USDT | Pivot R1 (D1) | Immediate resistance on any relief rally cap |
Trading scenarios
Bullish (contrarian)
Trigger: reclaim and close above EMA20 at 109,180.18 USDT on daily. Target: 111,620.73 (EMA50) then 115,689.17 (BB upper). Invalidation: failure to hold above EMA20. Risk: stops ~0.5 1.0 ATR ( 6 1,818 63,637 USDT) below entry.
Bearish (main)
Trigger: daily close below pivot S1 at 99,698.71 USDT or clear lower-band continuation. Target: a measured move equal to 1 62 ATR (~3,637 67,274 USDT) down from trigger. Invalidation: strong daily close back above PP (101,034.35). Risk: use 0.5 61.0 ATR for stops.
Neutral
Trigger: sustained range between PP 101,034.35 and R1 103,101.91. Target: trade the range; fade edges. Invalidation: breakout with volume beyond Bollinger bands. Risk: intraday stops 0.2 60.5 H1 ATR (~225 663 USDT).
Market context
Total crypto market cap: $3,473,345,384,716.37 (24h -1.81%).
BTC dominance: 58.43%. Fear & Greed Index: 23 (Extreme Fear). These conditions often mean lower risk appetite and heavier pressure on alts while BTC consolidates.
Bitcoin crypto news brief
Recent headlines show a pullback after October strength; sentiment is cautious and volume is mixed, which supports the bearish daily structure.
Ecosystem (DeFi)
DEX fees data provided. Uniswap V3 and Fluid DEX show strong fee increases 730d, while Uniswap V2 fees fell sharply. This suggests selective participation: higher activity on some pools but uneven liquidity across DeFi.
Recent news
Notable items in the feed: reports that “Uptober” ended with a pullback and headlines linking Fed commentary to crypto swings. These stories align with the current risk-off tone in markets.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. #NFA #DYOR
