In summary
- D1 close 6.99 USDT vs EMA20 7.01 1 neutral-to-bearish tilt with short-term resistance nearby; this week watch reaction at pivots.
- RSI 49.92 1 near neutral; MACD slightly positive on D1 but H1 momentum is weak.
- High ATR (0.78 USDT) on daily suggests bigger stops; overall backdrop: Trump crypto market feels fragile amid broad market weakness.
Summary
Multi-timeframe analysis
Trump crypto market 6 multi-timeframe snapshot
D1 (daily)
Price: 6.99 USDT. The close sits just below the D1 EMA20 (7.01 USDT) and well below EMA50 (7.22 USDT) and EMA200 (10.99 USDT). This structure shows that the trend is bearish on the daily chart because price remains under the short and medium EMAs.
RSI14: 49.92 1 effectively neutral but slightly under 50, implying sellers keep a marginal edge on D1.
MACD: line 0.13 vs signal 0.05 (hist 0.08) 1 positive histogram shows some daily bullish momentum, however it contrasts with EMA alignment and suggests limited strength rather than a clear trend reversal.
Bollinger Bands: mid 6.69 USDT, upper 8.36 USDT, lower 5.03 USDT. Price near the middle band indicates mean-reversion rather than a volatility expansion; volatility is present but not directional.
ATR14: 0.78 USDT 1 daily moves are material; use wider stops (see scenarios). This implies risk per trade is elevated compared with shorter timeframes.
Pivot: PP 6.97 USDT, R1 7.15 USDT, S1 6.81 USDT. Price is sitting near the PP, so intraday flips above R1 or below S1 would be useful triggers.
Takeaway: D1 shows a bearish regime with mixed momentum; bulls need clear follow-through above EMA20/EMA50 to regain control.
H1 (hourly)
Close 6.99 USDT below EMA20 (7.13 USDT), EMA50 (7.27 USDT) and EMA200 (7.36 USDT). This alignment signals an intraday bearish bias and that intraday resistances sit overhead.
RSI14: 39.20 1 confirms bearish momentum on the hourly; buyers are subdued in the session.
MACD: line -0.08 vs signal -0.07 (hist -0.01) 1 slightly negative momentum, indicating short-term selling pressure but little acceleration.
Bollinger: mid 7.17 USDT, lower 6.85 USDT. Price is closer to the lower band, which hints at short-term compression and a chance for a bounce if buyers return.
ATR14: 0.17 USDT 1 lower intraday volatility; tighter stops may be used on H1 trades but D1 ATR should guide overall risk.
Takeaway: H1 leans bearish with fragile momentum; expect choppy moves unless a breakout occurs.
M15 (15-minute)
Close 6.99 USDT under EMA20 (7.03 USDT) and EMA50 (7.08 USDT). The micro-structure shows short-term resistance overhead and limited bullish conviction.
RSI14: 43.87 1 neutral-to-bearish on the micro timeframe, suggesting short-term exhaustion for buyers.
MACD: line -0.02 vs signal -0.02 (hist 0.00) 1 flat momentum; the market is consolidated and awaiting a directional cue.
Bollinger: mid 7.05 USDT, upper 7.11 USDT, lower 6.98 USDT; price hugging the lower band implies micro compression and a high chance of a breakout or a quick mean-reversion.
ATR14: 0.05 USDT 1 tight micro volatility; watch for a volatility pickup to confirm direction.
Synthesis: D1 is bearish while H1 and M15 reinforce short-term downside bias 6 overall cautious structure with potential for short bounces.
Key levels
| Level | Type | Bias / Note |
|---|---|---|
| 6.99 USDT | Price (Close) | Near daily pivot; indecision zone |
| 7.01 USDT | D1 EMA20 | Immediate resistance; daily bulls need reclaim |
| 7.22 USDT | D1 EMA50 | Medium resistance; trend hurdle |
| 10.99 USDT | D1 EMA200 | Long-term resistance; clear invalidation for bears if surpassed |
| 6.69 USDT | Bollinger mid (D1) | Mean level 6 shows reversion point |
| 8.36 USDT | Bollinger upper (D1) | Upper volatility band; upside extension |
| 5.03 USDT | Bollinger lower (D1) | Lower volatility band; strong support area |
| 7.15 USDT / 6.81 USDT | Pivot R1 / S1 | Short-term triggers for intraday moves |
Trading scenarios
Bullish scenario
Trigger: Clean reclaim and close above D1 EMA20 (7.01 USDT) and pivot R1 (7.15 USDT) on increased volume. Target: first target at EMA50 (7.22 USDT), extension toward Bollinger upper (8.36 USDT). Invalidation: daily close back under PP 6.97 USDT. Risk: use stops at 0.5 61.0d7 ATR (0.39 60.78 USDT) to account for daily volatility.
Bearish scenario (main)
Trigger: Breakdown and daily close below S1 (6.81 USDT) and Bollinger mid (6.69 USDT) with rising selling pressure. Target: range toward Bollinger lower (5.03 USDT) and sustained pressure under EMA20/50. Invalidation: reclaim above EMA50 (7.22 USDT) with momentum. Risk: stops 0.5 61.0d7 ATR (0.39 60.78 USDT).
Neutral / Range scenario
Trigger: Oscillation between PP 6.97 USDT and R1 7.15 USDT without clear momentum. Target: short mean-reversion trades between 6.81 67.22 USDT. Invalidation: any decisive breakout beyond EMA50 or below Bollinger lower. Risk: tighter intraday stops using H1/M15 ATR (0.17 / 0.05 USDT) while respecting D1 ATR for position sizing.
Market context
Total crypto market cap: 3,473,345,384,716.37 USD (24h -1.81%). BTC dominance: 58.43%. Fear & Greed Index: 23 (Extreme Fear). High BTC dominance and extreme fear often weigh on smaller tokens and increase correlation, so altcoin moves can be muted.
Ecosystem (DeFi)
DEX fees: Uniswap V3 and Fluid DEX show strong recent fee increases while Uniswap V2 fees dropped sharply. Curve and Uniswap V4 also show rising fee trends. Interpretation: mixed on-chain activity 6 selective participation across DeFi protocols suggests cautious capital rotation.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. #NFA #DYOR
