According to André Dragosch, Head of Research at Bitwise Europe, the Bitcoin market is at a critical juncture, with price levels that could represent a genuine turning point for the digital asset.
FWIW —
— André Dragosch, PhD⚡ (@Andre_Dragosch) November 19, 2025
Think max max pain is reached the moment we tag either the IBIT cost basis at 84k or MSTR cost basis at 73k.
Very likely we’ll see a final bottom somewhere in between.
But these will be fire sale prices and akin to a full cycle reset imo.
Dragosch has recently identified two key thresholds that could mark the so-called “max pain,” the moment of maximum stress for investors before a potential market cycle recovery.
Summary
Bitcoin’s Key Levels: $84,000 and $73,000
Dragosch highlighted that the max pain of Bitcoin could be reached when the price hits one of the two key levels: $84,000, which represents the average purchase cost for BlackRock’s IBIT fund, or $73,000, corresponding to the average carrying price of MicroStrategy.
These two thresholds are particularly significant because they reflect the entry points of two major institutional players in the Bitcoin market.
The Importance of Average Costs for IBIT and MicroStrategy
The IBIT fund by BlackRock and MicroStrategy’s accumulation strategy have become true benchmarks for the industry. The average purchase cost of IBIT, set at $84,000, represents the foundation upon which the expectations of one of the world’s largest asset managers are built.
Similarly, MicroStrategy’s average price of $73,000 indicates the level at which the company led by Michael Saylor has built its position in Bitcoin.
The significance of “max pain” for the Bitcoin cycle
According to Dragosch, reaching one of these levels could mark a true reset of the market cycle. In other words, if Bitcoin were to drop to 73,000 or 84,000 dollars, we might witness a “clear-out” phase, meaning a market cleansing that would lead to a new foundation from which to restart.
A Potential Final Bottom
Dragosch believes that the price of Bitcoin could find a definitive bottom precisely in this price range, between $73,000 and $84,000.
This area would represent not only a point of maximum pain for many investors but also an opportunity for those ready to enter the market at what are considered bargain prices. Dragosch indeed refers to “fire sale prices,” which could attract new capital and mark the beginning of a new bull phase.
Implications for Institutional Investors
The presence of entities such as BlackRock and MicroStrategy among the major holders of Bitcoin gives particular significance to their average purchase costs.
If the price were to approach or fall below these thresholds, many institutional investors might find themselves under significant pressure, forced to reconsider their portfolio strategies.
A Market Cycle Ready for Reset
According to Dragosch, reaching these levels could be likened to a complete reset of the market cycle. In this phase, weaker positions would be eliminated, making room for new entries and a possible resurgence of the positive trend. It would be a crucial moment, where the Bitcoin market could redefine its foundations and prepare for a new phase of growth.
What to Expect from the Market in the Coming Months
Dragosch’s analysis suggests that the Bitcoin market is facing a significant decision. If the price were to actually reach the range between $73,000 and $84,000, we might witness a phase of volatility and a possible capitulation of less convinced investors. However, precisely in this scenario, conditions could be created for a new bull cycle, supported by the influx of fresh capital and renewed confidence from market participants.
The Role of Retail and Institutional Investors
In this context, both retail investors and institutional ones will need to closely monitor market developments. The ability to identify signs of a potential bottom and seize opportunities presented by possible “fire sale prices” could make the difference between suffering losses in the current cycle and positioning oneself to benefit from the next growth phase.
Conclusions: A Pivotal Moment for Bitcoin
André Dragosch’s insights highlight the importance of price levels associated with the major institutional players in the Bitcoin market. The range between $73,000 and $84,000 represents an area of maximum interest, where the most significant selling pressures and buying opportunities of the current cycle could converge.
The Bitcoin market is thus gearing up for a decisive moment, where reaching the “max pain” could mark not only the end of a phase of weakness but also the beginning of a new growth season for the most discussed and observed digital asset of the moment.
