Extreme Fear at $87K as Bitcoin price today stalls below key moving averages

Market conditions remain fragile as Bitcoin price today grinds below major moving averages, with sentiment stuck in Extreme Fear while short-term buyers tentatively push back.

Daily Chart (D1): Bears Still Own the Structure

The daily timeframe sets the main bias, and here the regime is clearly labeled bearish. Price is trading below all the key moving averages and under the midline of the Bollinger Bands. That is a downtrend by definition, but with signs of fatigue rather than panic.

Trend Structure – EMAs (20 / 50 / 200)

– Price (D1 close): $87,260
– EMA 20: $89,744.88
– EMA 50: $94,524.75
– EMA 200: $103,104.16

All three EMAs sit comfortably above spot price, with the 20 < 50 < 200 in a clean bearish stack. That configuration confirms an established downtrend, not just a short-term correction. The gap between price and the 20-day EMA is modest rather than extreme, so this is not a full-blown capitulation. It is more a controlled bleed where rallies are being sold. For bulls, it means any bounce toward $90–95K is likely to meet supply from trapped longs and patient shorts.

Momentum – RSI

– RSI (14D): 41.15

RSI is below the 50 line but not yet oversold. That is typical of a trending market where dips continue but without a full emotional flush-out. Sellers are still in charge, but they are no longer pressing to extremes. In practice, this often precedes a period of sideways-to-lower price action rather than a waterfall. That remains the case until either buyers step in and drag RSI back above 50, or a new shock drives it into the 30s for a harsher leg down.

Trend Quality – MACD

– MACD line: -1807.32
– Signal line: -1751.97
– Histogram: -55.34

The MACD is negative and slightly below its signal line, which fits the broader bearish picture. However, the histogram is only marginally negative, hinting that downside momentum is weakening rather than accelerating. In other words, the downtrend is still intact but no longer has the same punch it did earlier in the move. Bears are winning on structure, not on fresh aggression.

Volatility & Range – Bollinger Bands & ATR

– Bollinger mid-band (20D): $89,875.88
– Upper band: $94,200.38
– Lower band: $85,551.39
– ATR (14D): $3,323.22

Bitcoin is trading just above the lower Bollinger Band, inside the lower half of the volatility envelope. That kind of positioning usually reflects a market leaning bearish but not in freefall. Price is close enough to the lower band to show persistent selling, but not hugging it, which reinforces the idea of a grinding trend rather than panic liquidation.

The daily ATR around $3,300 tells you the average daily swing is roughly 3.5–4%. Volatility is high but not abnormal for BTC. For traders, this means intraday spikes of a few thousand dollars in either direction can happen without changing the bigger picture. You need decisive closes above or below key levels, not just wicks.

Short-Term Levels – Daily Pivots

– Pivot point (PP): $86,859.19
– Resistance 1 (R1): $87,854.44
– Support 1 (S1): $86,264.74

Price is currently trading just above the daily pivot and near R1. That signals a mild intraday positive bias within a bearish higher timeframe. As long as BTC holds above the pivot, intraday traders will treat dips toward $86K as potential support. A decisive daily close back below the pivot would reassert the bears and open the door for a retest of the lower Bollinger area near $85.5K.

Hourly Chart (H1): Short-Term Buyers Pushing Back

The 1-hour chart is labeled neutral, but momentum has clearly shifted from oversold conditions to a short-term rebound. This is where the battle between trend continuation and mean reversion is most visible.

Trend & Moving Averages (H1)

– Price (H1 close): $87,291.64
– EMA 20: $86,911.28
– EMA 50: $87,018.93
– EMA 200: $88,523.47

On the hourly, price has reclaimed the 20 and 50 EMAs and is holding slightly above them, while still trading below the 200 EMA. That is classic short-term mean reversion inside a broader downtrend. Short-term traders are stepping in to buy dips, but the bigger-picture seller wall still sits overhead around the 200 EMA near $88.5K.

If BTC can sustain above the 20 and 50 EMAs and start attacking the 200 EMA, the hourly trend could flip into a more constructive stance and fuel a squeeze toward $90K+. If it rolls back under the 20 and 50, it confirms that this bounce is just another bear market rally being sold.

Momentum (H1 RSI & MACD)

– RSI (14H): 56.24

RSI on the hourly is comfortably above 50, showing that in the short term, buyers have the upper hand. This is not overbought territory; it is the kind of reading you see during early stages of a rebound when sellers pause and short-term traders try to fade the fear.

– MACD line: 114.94
– Signal line: 0.65
– Histogram: 114.29

The hourly MACD has turned positive with a strong positive histogram. That is an active bullish momentum push on this timeframe. Combined with RSI above 50 and price reclaiming the 20 and 50 EMAs, it paints a picture of a market attempting a relief move after a heavy sentiment washout.

Volatility & Levels (H1)

– Bollinger mid-band: $86,605.62
– Upper band: $87,611.63
– Lower band: $85,599.61
– ATR (14H): $358.94
– Hourly Pivot: $87,281.09
– R1: $87,302.19
– S1: $87,270.54

Price is trading right around the hourly pivot and very close to the upper Bollinger Band. That is what you typically see during a short squeeze or a relief pop: price riding the top half of the band structure as late shorts are forced to cover. With ATR under $400, the intrahour noise is manageable, but the proximity to the upper band warns that chasing here carries the risk of a quick intraday pullback if buyers hesitate.

15-Minute Chart (M15): Execution Context Only

The 15-minute chart is neutral, and at this stage it is more about fine-tuning entries and exits than defining any real bias.

Short-Term EMAs (M15)

– Price (M15 close): $87,301.35
– EMA 20: $87,148.00
– EMA 50: $86,914.98
– EMA 200: $86,990.58

On this micro timeframe, price is above all the key EMAs, with a bullish alignment. That shows immediate-term buyers are in control, often driven by intraday traders and algos leaning long against the earlier support zones. However, these signals are fragile and can flip quickly, especially in a macro downtrend.

Momentum (M15 RSI & MACD)

– RSI (14M): 57.92

RSI is in healthy bullish territory, reflecting a modest intraday uptrend rather than euphoria. This usually supports scalping on the long side while it stays above 50.

– MACD line: 135.5
– Signal line: 152.42
– Histogram: -16.91

The MACD is still positive but has a slightly negative histogram, a sign that upside momentum on this tiny timeframe is waning. It is a typical pause signal: buyers have not lost control, but the thrust is no longer as strong. That aligns with price hovering near local resistance on the hourly and daily pivot zones.

Micro Volatility & Levels (M15)

– Bollinger mid-band: $87,190.98
– Upper band: $87,510.82
– Lower band: $86,871.14
– ATR (14M): $169.68
– Pivot: $87,287.57
– R1: $87,315.14
– S1: $87,273.77

Price is tracking just above the 15-minute pivot and close to R1, which underlines a very short-term bullish skew. With ATR under $200, small scalps in either direction can be invalidated quickly. Therefore, this timeframe should mainly be used to refine entries around higher-timeframe levels rather than to form a standalone view.

Broader Market Context: Fear and Dominance

– BTC Dominance: 57.55%
– Total Crypto Market Cap: ~$3.02T (down ~0.72% over 24h)
– Fear & Greed Index: 17 (Extreme Fear)

Bitcoin still commands the lion’s share of crypto value, with dominance above 57%. That is typical of risk-off phases: capital consolidates into BTC as altcoins bleed harder. Total market cap is down modestly over the last 24 hours, consistent with the controlled downtrend seen in Bitcoin’s daily structure.

The key sentiment driver here is Extreme Fear. Historically, readings in the teens often coincide with two types of behavior: forced selling from weak hands and cautious accumulation from long-term players. From a trading perspective, extreme fear rarely marks the beginning of a downtrend. It is more often seen in the later stages. However, late does not automatically mean finished; trends can stay depressed while sentiment remains pessimistic for weeks.

Main Scenario Based on Daily Chart: Bias Still Bearish

Pulling the timeframes together, the main scenario is bearish, anchored by the daily trend:

• Daily price is below all key EMAs and below the Bollinger midline.
• RSI is sub-50, confirming bears still control momentum at the higher timeframe.
• MACD is negative, though losing intensity, pointing to a mature but intact downtrend.

Hourly and 15-minute strength simply indicate a short-term attempt to mean-revert inside that larger bearish structure. Until the daily trend is challenged, the default assumption is still that rallies are more likely to be sold than the start of a sustained uptrend.

Bitcoin price today: Bullish Scenario

The bullish case is a countertrend rebound evolving into a more durable bottoming pattern.

What Bulls Want to See

1. Hold Above Daily Pivot ($86,859)
As long as price stays above the daily pivot on a closing basis, intraday dips toward $86–86.5K can serve as a springboard for buyers. Losing this level convincingly would weaken the entire bullish argument.

2. Clear Break Above $89–90K
This zone roughly corresponds to the daily Bollinger midline ($89.9K) and the 20-day EMA ($89.7K). A sustained move and daily close above this band would be the first real sign that the downtrend is being challenged rather than just paused. It would show that buyers can push price back into the upper half of the volatility envelope.

3. Hourly 200 EMA Reclaimed and Held
On the H1, the 200 EMA around $88.5K is the immediate battlefield. If BTC can break, retest, and hold above that, the path opens toward $90–92K. That would also keep the hourly RSI and MACD in bullish alignment, supporting follow-through buying.

4. RSI and MACD Confirmation on Daily
For a more structural bullish case, RSI needs to climb back above 50 on the daily, and the MACD histogram should cross into positive territory. That kind of momentum shift would argue that the worst of the selling is behind us and that pullbacks are starting to get bought rather than sold.

Upside Targets in a Bullish Path

• First resistance cluster: $88.5–90K (H1 200 EMA plus daily mid-BB and EMA20).
• If reclaimed, next objective: $94–95K at the daily EMA50 and upper daily Bollinger mid-zone.
• In a stronger squeeze, the market could eventually test toward $100K+, but that would require a complete sentiment reset and more than just a short-covering rally.

What Invalidates the Bullish Scenario

• A daily close back below $86K, under the pivot and leaning hard on the lower Bollinger band.
• Hourly RSI falling back under 50 with MACD returning negative while price remains below the H1 200 EMA.
• Another leg down in the fear and greed index without any price stabilization, signaling capitulation is still ahead, not behind.

Bitcoin price today: Bearish Scenario

The bearish scenario is simply that the current bounce is a temporary short-covering rally inside a mature downtrend, setting up the next leg lower.

What Bears Want to See

1. Failure at $88–90K Resistance
If BTC stalls below or at the H1 200 EMA (around $88.5K) and daily EMA20 or mid-BB (around $89.8–90K), it validates these as strong supply zones. Rejection candles in this band, especially with rising volume, would signal that larger sellers are still distributing into strength.

2. Return Below the Daily Pivot
A decisive move back under $86,859, turning the pivot into resistance, would confirm that the intraday bounce has been absorbed. From there, the lower daily Bollinger band around $85.5K becomes the obvious magnet.

3. Fresh Momentum to the Downside
On the daily chart, bears would like to see the MACD line roll further down with a deepening negative histogram, and RSI drifting from the low 40s toward the mid-30s. That would mean the current loss of momentum was just a pause before renewed selling.

4. Sentiment Staying Depressed, Not Recovering
If the fear and greed index remains stuck in Extreme Fear while price keeps making or testing new lows, it shows that long-term capital is staying sidelined. That leaves the market vulnerable to further downside.

Downside Targets in a Bearish Path

• Immediate support area: $85.5K (lower daily Bollinger band).
• If that breaks on a daily close, the next logical zone is a deeper extension below the band, typically another $3–5K driven by ATR. That puts a potential expansion move into the $80–82K region.
• In a more aggressive flush, the market could overshoot even further, especially if liquidity thins out and late longs capitulate.

What Invalidates the Bearish Scenario

• A daily close above $90K, recapturing the 20-day EMA and mid-BB convincingly.
• Daily RSI reclaiming and holding above 50, signaling a real shift in control.
• Hourly price building a base above the 200 EMA with MACD and RSI staying bullish, turning former resistance into support.

How to Think About Positioning Right Now

The market is split between two realities:

• Structure: clearly bearish on the daily, below all EMAs with momentum still negative.
• Short-term flow: turning bullish on the hourly and 15-minute, with intraday traders buying fear and pushing a relief rally.

For positioning, that means you are operating inside a short-term rebound against a larger downtrend. Trend-followers will typically stay cautious on longs until BTC can reclaim at least the $89–90K band on a daily close. Short-term traders, on the other hand, may use intraday pullbacks above the daily pivot and hourly EMAs as opportunities to play the bounce, but with tight risk controls, given the macro bearish backdrop.

Volatility remains elevated. A daily ATR above $3K and intraday ATRs of a few hundred dollars mean stop placement and position sizing matter more than usual. The current Extreme Fear reading also tells you that emotions are already stretched; markets can snap violently in both directions from here.

In this environment, the key is not to confuse relief bounces with a full trend reversal. Until the daily chart proves otherwise by reclaiming key moving averages and flipping momentum, the burden of proof is still on the bulls.

This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and is based on technical data available at the time of writing. It is not investment, trading, or financial advice, and it does not take into account your personal financial situation or objectives. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile; only you can decide how and whether to participate in them.