In recent days, some very negative forecasts about Bitcoin have been circulating.
To be honest, there are also slightly positive forecasts circulating, but that’s usually the case. In fact, both positive and negative forecasts almost always circulate simultaneously, it’s just that at this moment the latter prevail.
However, the fact is that market analysis tells a different story, and although this is not sufficient to make predictions, it has the advantage of being based on real data, rather than often personal interpretations of what might happen.
Summary
The Very Negative Forecast
The trader Tony Severino had predicted the all-time high of Bitcoin for October 2025.
At the end of February, he had published his chart indicating the possibility of a significant vertical collapse of Bitcoin by 2030.
Generally, the price trend of Bitcoin follows a four-year cycle linked to the halving and especially to U.S. politics, where national elections are held every four years.
Severino’s chart shows, starting from 2020, a possible colossal “head and shoulders” pattern, with the first shoulder reached at the end of 2021 at approximately $70,000, and a head reached in 2025 at around $125,000.
In the event that the head and shoulders pattern completes in 2028, with a peak below $80,000, Severino envisions a crash in the following years to around $4,000.
However, it is necessary to specify a few things to fully understand this potential forecast.
First of all, since the head and shoulders pattern has not yet been completed, it cannot actually be considered a forecast. In fact, there is no guarantee that the head and shoulders will be completed.
Moreover, the minimum peak following the “head” and preceding the second “shoulder” should be reached again below $20,000, a price level that currently still seems decidedly very distant.
Moreover, the maximum price of the second shoulder is quite low, around $80,000, and it is a level that could potentially be adjusted and surpassed in the coming months, at least in theory.
Finally, even if the head and shoulders pattern were to be completed, there would be no certainty that the subsequent outcome must necessarily be a crash.
Other Negative Forecasts
However, there are also other negative forecasts circulating, but the majority does not foresee a collapse of Bitcoin’s price below $20,000 in 2026.
Generally, other forecasts suggest a possible bottom ranging between $30,000 and $50,000, with only a few analysts venturing to predict a significant drop below $30,000 during 2026.
This effectively means that, as of now, a significant number of analysts do not anticipate the completion of the head and shoulders pattern hypothesized by Severino.
It should be noted that even during the previous major bear-markets of Bitcoin, particularly those of 2018 and 2022, there were those who speculated about crashes somewhat similar to what Severino hypothesized, but none of that materialized.
For example, in 2022, when the lowest peak occurred following the first hypothetical shoulder of the pattern drawn by Severino, several analysts suggested that the price of Bitcoin could already then fall below $10,000, or even to those $4,000 projected by Severino for 2030.
Instead, the decline halted at around $15,000, which is not much below the substantial $19,000 of the previous cycle’s all-time high.
In other words, at this moment it seems entirely possible for a further decline even below $60,000, but it also seems difficult to realistically imagine a crash below $30,000 by the end of the year.
The Positive Forecasts
However, analyzing what is truly happening in the markets reveals another hypothesis.
This is not a hypothesis based on the long-term (or medium-long-term) trend of Bitcoin’s price, but focused solely on the short-medium or at most medium-term period.
There are indeed two dynamics currently at play, quite clear, suggesting a possible rebound.
The first actually concerns the gold market, where there appears to be a slow but inexorable plan of whale distribution underway. For now, it is still a very contained dynamic, so much so that it is not even easily perceptible, but by analyzing the movements of the whales, it seems that they are selling gold little by little to avoid driving down its price.
It should not be forgotten that whales have purchased enormous quantities of gold in the past months and years when its price was below $4,700 per ounce, so it is quite normal that now, with it above $5,400, they are starting to cash in. In fact, to be honest, they have been monetizing for over a month now, particularly since it surpassed $5,000 per ounce.
Similarly, the hypothesis emerges that they are implementing an accumulation plan on Bitcoin, practically in the same manner. In particular, it seems they are buying BTC at prices lower than or equal to approximately $65,000.
It is very difficult to try to predict how long these two dynamics might last, but what the whales are doing with Bitcoin now can in some ways vaguely resemble what they did with gold in recent months and years.
This suggests that they are likely expecting a rebound in the price of Bitcoin, perhaps not in the short term but more likely in the medium term.
In the hypothetical scenario where all this leads to a rebound, it is sufficient for this rebound to break decisively upwards through the $80,000 barrier, and remain well above this figure for a while, to invalidate the head and shoulders pattern outlined by Severino.
