As usual, there are highly contrasting forecasts regarding the future trend of Bitcoin’s price.
In recent days, for example, there was first a slightly positive forecast, and then a very negative one.
Now it’s time for a very positive one.
These forecasts, in themselves, are somewhat speculative. However, it remains very interesting to analyze their underlying logic, because often these have something solid.
For example, the slightly positive forecast described a short-term scenario that somewhat resembles what is actually happening. On the other hand, the very negative one highlighted the limitations of technical analysis on the long-term trend of BTC’s price.
Summary
The Very Positive Forecast
The new forecast, this time very positive, was released two days ago.
It was published by analyst Crypto Patel on X, and predicts a potential increase in Bitcoin’s price to $220,000.
This forecast is based on the analysis of the BTCUSD “mega-cycle,” as Crypto Patel calls it, referring to the four-year cycle.
The analyst highlights how each “mega-cycle” has had a final turning point.
In 2018, there was an 85% price drop from previous all-time highs, followed by a 350% rebound.
Subsequently, in 2019, after a 70% drop, there was a 1,500% surge.
In 2022, after a 78% decline, there was a 750% surge.
As of now, in 2026, the decline from previous all-time highs is 50%, but according to Crypto Patel, it could extend further to reach a price level of around $50,000. At that point, he envisions a potential strong rebound that could drive it to approximately $220,000.
However, this projection has a significant limitation: it is by no means certain that the past must necessarily repeat itself, or that the trend of the various cycles will remain more or less unchanged.
The Ongoing Anomaly
It should be noted that there is a significant anomaly underway.
First of all, in October 2025, the price of Bitcoin fell due to the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, which can absolutely be considered a black swan event given its extensive duration.
Moreover, it had never happened before that in the year following the all-time high, a 50% crash occurred within just four months.
This alone might be enough to assert that the past actually tends not to repeat itself exactly, but it obviously says nothing about the fact that, broadly speaking, there may be similarities.
However, the geopolitical situation in this 2026 is very different from that of 2022, and it also differs from that 2018, which was the second year of Donald Trump’s first term in the White House.
At this point, it would be wise to tread carefully when using the past to make such precise projections about the future.
The Current Surge
However, returning to the first forecast, the slightly positive one, the path towards a rebound to $80,000 indeed seems to have been undertaken.
Although this is not nearly enough to assert that the outcome must be exactly that, the basic logic seems to be correct, at least for now.
The key in this case lies in the behavior of the whales.
It should be noted that often when retail investors behave in a certain way, whales do the exact opposite. When something like this happens, it is advisable to consider the behavior of retail investors as not favorable, because they often make mistakes, and probably consider the behavior of whales as favorable.
Since the end of February, whales have been consistently buying and accumulating BTC, although it should be noted that they are currently doing so at a very slow pace.
The point is that in the past week, the selling pressure of Bitcoin on crypto exchanges has significantly decreased, although it has not yet dropped to the lows of this cycle reached shortly after mid-January.
In such a situation, it only takes a slight increase in buying pressure to push the price up a bit, with whales buying BTC, something like this is inevitable.
Moreover, in recent days it seems that retail investors have generally started buying again, which emphasizes this ongoing trend.
However, it is very difficult to imagine how long all this can continue, especially since just on Monday the US government drained more than 70 billion dollars from the markets in a single day. Movements of this type generally have effects on the markets with a couple of days’ delay, so this afternoon at the reopening of the US markets, the buying pressure could also decrease significantly.
However, if the whales continue to buy, they are either mistaken (which happens very rarely), or they believe that in the coming days and weeks, the low selling pressure could continue to have positive effects on the price of Bitcoin, and the buying pressure might remain substantial.
