Analysts at Bitwise see the bitcoin price outlook tied to a rapidly expanding gold-model-forecasts.pdf’ target=’_blank’ rel=’noopener noreferrer’>global store-of-value market, with a long-term path to seven-figure valuations.
Summary
Bitwise thesis on Bitcoin as an emerging store of value
Despite Bitcoin trading about 40% below its all-time high and battling to hold above $70,000, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan argues the long-term narrative remains bullish. In a recent report dated 2024 and titled “How Bitcoin Gets to $1 Million,” he describes bitcoin as an emerging store-of-value asset that increasingly mirrors gold in its function.
Hougan lays out a simple framework to value BTC. First, estimate the size of the global store-of-value market. Then, determine bitcoin’s eventual share of that market. Finally, divide that share by its fixed supply of 21 million coins. This structure, he says, clarifies how price targets that once seemed unrealistic could become plausible over time.
Current store-of-value market and Bitcoin’s share
Today, Hougan estimates the total store-of-value market at just under $38 trillion. Roughly $36 trillion sits in gold, with about $1.4 trillion in bitcoin itself. Consequently, he calculates that Bitcoin currently controls slightly less than 4% of this market, leaving significant room for future gains if adoption continues.
At first glance, the gap between a 4% market share and a price of $1 million per coin appears daunting. To reach that level at today’s store-of-value size, bitcoin would have to capture more than 50% of the entire market, a share that many traditional investors might dismiss as unrealistic. However, Hougan argues such static assumptions miss a crucial dynamic.
According to the Bitwise executive, the store-of-value universe is not fixed. It has expanded substantially over the past two decades alongside concerns over fiat currency debasement and rising monetary inflation. Moreover, he believes these macro forces are likely to intensify rather than fade, reinforcing demand for scarce assets.
Projecting a larger store-of-value universe
A central pillar of Hougan’s argument is that the overall market for capital preservation will continue to grow dramatically. He projects that within roughly ten years, the global store-of-value market could approach $121 trillion. Under this scenario, bitcoin would not need to dominate the space to reach seven-figure territory.
In a bitwise bitcoin analysis based on that projection, Hougan notes that bitcoin would only need to secure about 17% of the store-of-value market to justify a price of $1 million per coin. That said, this implies a move from around 4% to 17% share, a substantial shift in global asset allocation patterns over a decade.
Hougan argues that recent advances support this trajectory. In his view, growing institutional participation, regulatory clarity in key jurisdictions, and the launch of new investment vehicles have all made it easier for investors to treat Bitcoin as a macro asset. Moreover, every expansion of market infrastructure tends to reduce perceived risk and invite additional capital.
Risks, constraints, and alternative scenarios
Hougan also outlines notable risks to his thesis. If the global store-of-value market fails to grow as it has during the last 20 years, the structural tailwind behind bitcoin would weaken. In that environment, gold could face downward pressure, and bitcoin might find it harder to gain incremental share from established safe-haven assets.
There is also the possibility that investor behavior evolves differently than expected. For instance, if new forms of digital assets, tokenized securities, or central bank digital currencies absorb a larger fraction of savings, Bitcoin might not capture the envisioned slice of the market. However, Hougan contends that bitcoin’s scarcity and decentralization still offer a unique value proposition.
Conversely, he warns the projections he presents may actually prove conservative. If worries over government debt trajectories and fiscal deficits become acute, demand for non-sovereign stores of value could accelerate. Under such stress scenarios, the primary_keyword could be dramatically higher, with BTC’s share of the store-of-value market rising well beyond the 17% baseline he uses.
Implications for long-term valuation
Hougan emphasizes that his base case combines two forces: continued expansion of the global store-of-value market and a steady increase in bitcoin’s share of that pool. Together, these drivers could support valuations far above current levels. Moreover, he suggests that investors often underestimate the compounding impact of both market growth and share gains over a full decade.
In practical terms, his framework offers a way to think about bitcoin alongside gold and other scarce assets rather than purely as a speculative instrument. It also supports the broader narrative that bitcoin is a store of value in the making, still early in its adoption curve. However, he reiterates that outcomes will depend heavily on macroeconomic conditions and policy responses.
Recent price action and market context
While Hougan’s analysis is long-term in nature, it comes as bitcoin stages a short-term rebound. The daily chart shows BTC in a relief rally, breaking back above $70,000 after recent volatility. That said, the asset remains roughly 40% below its record highs, highlighting how far sentiment has swung over prior cycles.
According to data provider CoinGecko, BTC traded around $70,130 at the time of writing, up approximately 8% over the past two weeks. This move reflects renewed demand following earlier drawdowns. Moreover, technical traders are closely watching whether bitcoin can hold above this psychological threshold and convert it into a stronger support zone.
Market participants also continue to track macro drivers, from interest-rate expectations to liquidity conditions, which can either fuel or cap speculative appetite. In this context, long-horizon valuation frameworks such as Hougan’s offer investors a counterweight to short-term noise. However, they do not eliminate volatility along the way.
Long-term perspective on Bitcoin and the store-of-value narrative
For investors evaluating bitcoin alongside traditional safe havens, Hougan’s scenario analysis underscores how structural forces could reshape the asset’s role in portfolios. His work effectively highlights that bitcoin’s valuation is tied not just to its own adoption, but to the evolution of the entire store-of-value ecosystem over the next decade.
In summary, Bitwise’s framework suggests that if the store-of-value market expands toward $121 trillion and bitcoin captures a mid-teens percentage share, a $1 million price becomes a plausible outcome rather than a purely speculative dream. However, the path is likely to be uneven, with macro risks, regulatory shifts, and competing assets all influencing the final outcome.
