The fourth Bitcoin halving happened two days ago, but there doesn’t seem to be any particular news yet about the price trend of BTC.
Indeed, while a significant increase in the price of Bitcoin was not expected immediately after the halving, a retracement was more anticipated, which however did not occur.
At this moment, there is no particularly interesting news regarding the post-halving.
Summary
Latest news and recent trend after Bitcoin halving: Increase in fees
The only relevant news is the significant increase in fees, which however has already returned.
The fact is that along with the halving, the new Rune protocol was launched, which caused a very strong surge in on-chain fees in the minutes and hours immediately following the halving.
Considering the average daily transaction fees, on Saturday 20th they skyrocketed to all-time highs, reaching almost $130.
Yesterday, however, they were already back below $35, and today they continue to fall.
The median jumped from $9.5 on Friday to over $92 on Saturday, before dropping back down yesterday to below $20.
Currently, with about $12 you can get a simple on-chain transaction approved within two blocks, and with just under $10 you can get it approved within an hour.
This has been the only truly relevant innovation introduced so far by the fourth halving of Bitcoin.
The problem for miners
One thing that many expected was that miners would have big problems keeping their activity going after the sudden halving of their reward.
However, this is such a predictable event, and awaited for many months, that all the main miners surely had already developed a strategy to make up for the decrease in earnings.
Furthermore, on Saturday, with the incredible increase in fees, they actually collected more than the day before, because if the reward decreased by 3.125 BTC per block, the collection for fees increased by more than 3.125 BTC per block on average.
Now, however, the average fees per block are returning to normal, below 2 BTC per block, so much so that today miners are earning less than they were earning on Friday.
Indeed, by calculating in dollars, from the approximately 70 million dollars collected overall by the miners on Friday 19th, we even reached 107 million the following day after the halving, but then yesterday it dropped to about 50 million.
Leaving aside the anomaly of Saturday, for now the daily earnings of the miners have decreased by less than 30%, although such reductions should continue today.
Currently, however, it seems that the extraction cost for BTC is slightly above $50,000, much less than its market value.
The overall hashrate yesterday dropped to 580 Eh/s, a value in line with that of early April, although today it should have dropped even further. The block-time has risen above 10 minutes, but for now it is still below 11.
The price trend of Bitcoin after the news of the halving and Rune protocol
If it was taken for granted that the Bitcoin halving would not have any significant positive effect on the price of BTC in the short term, many instead expected a drop.
On Friday the price was above $64,000, while during the day on Saturday, in the hours following the halving, it dropped to $63,000.
However, yesterday it went back above $65,000, and today even above $66,000.
However, these are movements that are really not very significant, since the current price is the same as at the beginning of March, and is in line with the sideways trend that started on March 15th and ended on April 12th.
It is possible to imagine that markets were expecting a post-halving retracement for weeks, and that they discounted it in advance in the seven days leading up to the halving itself.
Indeed, the retracement started on April 12, and ended on Friday 19, the day before the halving, brought the price of BTC below $60,000, one of the levels expected by those who were expecting a retracement.
However, it was such a short and timid retracement that perhaps it wouldn’t even be appropriate to define it as such, so much so that it should be downgraded to a simple correction, at least for now.
What is not at all obvious, however, is that last week’s correction has completely exhausted itself. In other words, there still seems to be room for a hypothetical further retracement, even though at this moment there are no clear signals in that direction.
The forecasts
According to Bitget analyst Gracy Chen, this Bitcoin halving differs significantly and in several key aspects from previous halvings, due to how much the market has developed in the last cycle.
In such a scenario, it becomes much more difficult to use past analysis to make predictions for the future.
Chen said:
“The evolution of the regulatory landscape and technological advancements further differentiate this cycle. Additionally, favorable global economic conditions and recent spot ETFs on Bitcoin offer a better market sentiment.”
Despite this, the Bitget analyst goes so far as to predict that Bitcoin could reach a six-figure price perhaps as early as next year.
He added:
“Looking to the future, after 2024, Bitcoin is ready to exceed $100,000, supported by strengthened regulatory frameworks, technological innovations, and favorable macroeconomic conditions.”
