Houbi, crypto traders’ true sentiment
Houbi, crypto traders’ true sentiment

Houbi, crypto traders’ true sentiment

By Fabio Lugano - 24 Oct 2018

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Following what is done in the real economy and on the stock exchange, Huobi regularly carries out surveys on market sentiment, i.e. on the future expectations of operators regarding the prices of cryptocurrencies.

The recent analysis was carried out by collecting 891 questionnaires distributed over 23 countries and completed between 29th and 31st of July through social media, in an area ranging from the Far East to the Americas and Europe.

Given a maximum optimistic value of 100 and the maximum pessimistic value of zero, the overall voting index, weighted between short, medium and long-term, is equal to 75.6 points, with an increase of 8.8% compared to the previous month and therefore an increase in optimism.

The medium-term index was 67.4% and the short-term index was 78.7%, an increase of 15.1% while comparing it to the previous month the increase was of 8%.

The long-term index is 88.8 points, an increase of 1.4%. Therefore, the short-term outlook has changed for the better while the long-term outlook remains firmly positive.

The report also provides data about the distribution of opinions among the different alternatives depending on the time horizons considered.

In the short term, most investors show a moderately optimistic outlook. It’s important to remember that these are operators’ expectations, not a scientific forecast, so it is influenced both by the experiences of the immediately preceding period and by the time the question was asked.

In the second half of July, there was, in fact, a rally of cryptocurrency values that may have influenced short-term expectations.

Medium-term forecasts show a much higher prevalence of expectations of a significant increase, above 30%. The overall optimism exceeds 80%, against just over 10% expecting a decline.

The long-term is obviously the profile that is least affected by changes in expectations:

Also in this case optimism is prevalent, with 90% expecting a rise in the next three years, and 75.65% expecting a rise of more than 30%. Expectations remain positive in the long term, without major changes.

Huobi also analyses the data geographically, dividing the data between China and the rest of the world. In this case, China appears to be more optimistic in the short term and less optimistic in the medium term, despite the recent penalisation of the equity markets.

Fabio Lugano

Graduated with honors from Bocconi University, Fabio is a consultant for companies and wounded shareholders of the Banche Venete. He is also the author of "Scenari Economici", and lecturer and analyst of cryptocurrencies since 2016.

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