A few days ago Ross Ulbricht published his bearish prediction on the short-term price of bitcoin.
This prediction has not been well received by some of his followers and so he wanted to publish a clarification in which he states bluntly that he is still bullish, but only in the long term.
Here are my latest #BitcoinByRoss posts:
Some Clarification and Long-Term Perspective
For those of you upset by my short-term bearish forecast, I want to reiterate I am still bullish long-term.https://t.co/HxFVtQHSsu
— Ross Ulbricht (@RealRossU) April 23, 2020
In this new post, in which he claims to be perhaps somehow advantaged by being currently in prison, as he is less influenced by daily events and can take a detached position towards the evolution of the bitcoin price in the long term, he describes speculative markets as “psychological traps”.
Ulbricht points out that strong price fluctuations inevitably generate strong emotions, such as uncontrolled optimism on occasions, and that it is very difficult not to be affected.
This often leads to decisions being made based on emotions, which is the exact opposite of what should be done.
He also highlights how, in reality, no one knows the future and no one controls this market, so what he is trying to do is just map out the most likely scenarios in order to be prepared for what might happen in the future so as to avoid being dominated by emotions and try to “act instead of react”.
This is why no vision of the market is ever 100% certain and it is never a good idea to bet everything on it, so much so that Ulbricht himself says that, despite his bearish short-term prediction, in reality, there are still bullish possibilities, even in the short term.
The point is that “you don’t need to be right 100% of the time to be a profitable investor”.
At this stage, he explicitly states that although he is bearish in the short term, he is still bullish in the long term.
According to Ulbricht, the next wave may even prove to be more impressive than the previous ones, as is often the case with third waves.
At this point, he makes a purely theoretical hypothesis, which is absolutely one of the most bullish that has ever been proposed by those who follow this market in depth.
Taking as reference the first wave, which brought the price from $0.06 to $20,000, with the multiplication of the price by a factor of 333,333, and if the second wave, the bearish one, should bring the price back to $1,000, then should the third wave be as big as the first one, it could bring the price of a single BTC to $333 million.
Such a price would correspond to a bitcoin market capitalization of $7 quadrillion, more than ten times the current GDP of the world.
This hypothesis, entirely theoretical, suggests that the sky’s the limit for bitcoin in the long term.
This, however, should not be taken as a prediction and, in any event, it would have as a time horizon not a few years, but a few decades.
Moreover, the fact that the hypothesis of a return of the price of bitcoin to $1,000 is not actually shared by many analysts, casts some doubt on the real quality of this analysis.