In these last months of 2020, has the price of Bitcoin been following a trend similar to that of 2017?
At the end of September 2017, the price of BTC was about $4,300. After one month it had already risen to over $6,300, that is, during the month of October alone it had risen by 47%.
But the real boom started in November, so much so that the month ended with a price of $10,400, and a 63% gain, while in December it peaked at $20,000, and then closed the month at $14,800, a 42% gain compared to the end of November.
Well, the trend in 2020 is quite different, although similar in some ways.
At the end of September, the price was $10,800, while October closed at $13,400, with a 24% gain. In other words, October 2020 was a month of sustained growth, as was October 2017, but it was about half that of three years ago.
November 2020 has not yet ended, but taking as reference the first 12 days of the month, the gain compared to the October closing was 20%, while in 2017 there was a 7% drop in the price of bitcoin in the first 12 days of the month.
Even when comparing the performance of the first ten months of the year there is no match.
On October 31st, 2017 in fact the gain compared to January 1st was already 538%, while in the same period of 2020 it was 88%.
There are greater similarities with 2016, the year of Bitcoin’s second halving (in 2020 there was the third one).
The price of BTC at the end of September 2016 was $608, then rose to $698 at the end of October, with a gain of 14%, and to $703 on November 12th, with a further gain of 0.12%.
Compared to the beginning of the year, the price at the end of October had increased by 60%, with a performance only slightly lower than that of 2020.
Therefore the trend of the price of bitcoin in these last months of 2020 seems more similar to that of the last months of 2016, than to that of end 2017.
The price of Bitcoin in 2017: the speculative bubble
Moreover, at the end of 2017, a huge speculative bubble on the price of bitcoin was triggered, which literally burst after reaching the all-time high on December 17th, pushing the price back to $6,000 at the beginning of February 2018, reaching the levels of the beginning of November 2017.
At the end of 2016, however, only a mini-bubble formed that brought the price back above $1,100 on January 4th, 2017, and then momentarily retraced down to $780 on January 11th, before rising again.
It is not to be excluded that also the end of 2020 can lead to a similar situation, with the price that could quickly return to the all time high, around 20.000$, to then retrace.
Anthony Pompliano is also convinced of this and has tweeted about it:
“There are only 12 days in the history of Bitcoin where the digital currency’s price has been above today’s price. Soon it will be 0”.