One of the two co-founders of the Gemini exchange, Cameron Winklevoss, says there may never be another crypto winter.
There may never be another crypto winter.
— Cameron Winklevoss (@cameron) July 4, 2021
By “crypto winter” is meant a long period of bear market relating to cryptocurrencies, for example like that of 2014-2015-2016 or that of 2018-2019-2020.
Crypto winters of the past
In 2014, after peaking at $1,100 at the end of the previous year, the price plummeted below $300 and then fell again the following year to $170. It was only in 2016 that it began to recover, but without returning above $1,000.
In 2018, after reaching a new peak at the end of the previous year at $20,000, the price plummeted to $3,200, only to rise temporarily the following year to over $13,000. However, 2020 began at a little over $7,000, with a drop to $4,100 in March, but then in December returned to and surpassed $20,000.
In both cases the crypto-winter lasted almost three years.
Why will the next winter be different
According to Cameron Winklevoss, this time could be different, although in theory there is a chance that something similar could happen again.
However, the short to medium term is a different matter.
It is worth remembering that the term “crypto-winter” refers to a long bearish period, or lateralization, while in the short or medium term we should instead talk about the risk of a bearish period.
Starting in mid-April 2021, when the price of bitcoin hit a new all-time high of almost $65,000, a decline was triggered which in fact started a bearish period that has now lasted almost three months.
During this bearish period, the price has fallen to around or below $31,000 on five occasions, with a single quick drop to below $29,000. However, since the flash crash on 19 May, the price has actually been sideways within a range of roughly $30,000 to $40,000.
Moreover, as Santiment points out, trading volumes in recent days have been the lowest of the year.
📊 #Bitcoin nearly hit $36k again before dropping back down to $34k on a strikingly low exchange volume weekend. There was such low exchange inflow & outflow activity, in fact, that our data indicated exchange volume hasn't been this non-existent all year. https://t.co/HRKtuxVKne pic.twitter.com/FeqVb2E6Yf
— Santiment (@santimentfeed) July 5, 2021
This could suggest an imminent end to this phase, although Santiment does not say in which direction the price of BTC could move once the lateralization that has been going on for a month and a half is over.
It is possible that some enthusiasm may be returning to the crypto markets, and Cameron Winklevoss is not immune to this sentiment at the moment. In fact, if, like in 2013 or 2017, the price of bitcoin in the latter part of the year shoots up due to a new speculative bubble, it is hard to imagine that a crypto winter will not be triggered once the speculative bubble bursts, as happened in 2014 or 2018.