Bitcoin analysis: the bullish and the bearish scenario
Bitcoin analysis: the bullish and the bearish scenario
Trading

Bitcoin analysis: the bullish and the bearish scenario

By R.L. Bryer - 16 Dec 2021

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Bitcoin Analysis 

Bitcoin’s price again gave bullish market participants hope as it finished its daily candle on Wednesday +$493. 

The BTC/USD 1D chart below from visioncrypto posits a bearish scenario for BTC’s price. The chartist uses the 50/80 rule on the chart below. He suggests with this model that there’s a 50% chance BTC’s price will go down 80% from its ATH to bring the price down to the $30k level. The 80% chance is that BTC goes down 50% from its ATH to touch and test the $40k level.

Bitcoin Analysis 
The bearish scenario: BTC -80% from ATH

The bullish case for BTC is below on the 1W BTC/USD chart. If BTC’s price is able to hold the 61.8% fib level [$48,937] they’ll hope some bullish divergence emerges and they can again flip the 50% fib level [$52,234.28] from overhead resistance to support again.

Bitcoin Analysis
The bullish scenario: BTC back to $52k

The Fear and Greed Index is 29 Fear and +1 from Wednesday’s reading of 28 Fear. 

fear & Greed index
The Fear and Greed Index is in fear zone

BTC’s 24 hour price range is $46,666-$49,257 and its 7 day price range is $46,580-$50,878. Bitcoin’s 52 week price range is $19,388-$69,044. 

The price of bitcoin on this date last year was $21,317. 

The average price of BTC for the last 30 days is $54,344. 

Bitcoin [+1.02%] closed its daily candle worth $48,901 and in green figures for a second straight day.

Ethereum Analysis 

Ether’s price also trended higher on Wednesday and rallied with the bulk of crypto assets finishing the day +$158.53. 

Today we’re looking at two different Ethereum charts from EthanTW. The one below and to the left is the ETH/USD 1D chart. 

On this chart bullish Ether traders are holding .382 fib level [$3,495.15] and have reclaimed the .5 fib level [$3,758.6], at the time of writing. If bulls can hold that level and get some bullish divergence, bullish ETH traders will again set their sights on $4k, an important level of inflection. If they’re successful there, then bullish ETH traders will attempt to send ETH’s price up to test the .618 [$4,022.05] yet again. 

Ethereum Analysis 
Ethereum can keep again $4k level and could continue to outperform BTC

The second chart on the right of the page is the ETH/BTC 1D chart and shows how strong ETH’s trend against BTC has been dating back to May. The chartist posits the 0.618 [.0777272] level could be a good entry for traders that believe ETH will continue to outperform BTC.

ETH’s 24 hour price range is $3,675-$3,965 and its 7 day price range is $3,702-$4,458. Ether’s 52 week price range is $575.67-$4,878.26. 

The price of ETH on this date in 2020 was $635.96.

The average price of ETH for the last 30 days is $4,235.73. 

Ether [+4.11%] closed its daily candle on Wednesday worth $4,018.94 and in green figures for a second straight daily candle close.

Elrond Analysis

Elrond’s price has been extremely volatile over the last few weeks. EGLD continued it’s extreme volatility with a major move to the upside on Wednesday and finished the day +$41.94.

Elrond bulls thus far have been able to pivot and hold the .618 fib level [$266.91] as shown on the EGLD/USDT 4hr chart below from khashayar_taheri

Elrond Analysis
Elrond is very volatile

Elrond’s +1,102% against The U.S. Dollar over the last 12 months, +381.3% against BTC, and +77.77% against ETH over the same duration.

ELGD 24 hour price range is $247.21-$286.21 and its 7 day price range is $232.3-$308.65.  Elrond’s 52 week price range is $20.85-$545.64. 

Elrond’s price on this date last year was $21.79. 

The average price for EGLD over the last 30 days is $344.25. 

Elrond [+16.48%] closed its daily candle worth $296.37 on Wednesday and has finished in green digits for back to back days. 

R.L. Bryer

Since 2009, the onset of the bitcoin network, R.L. Bryer has been covering the space. He is the author of Blockchain: Project Renaissance Volume I and II. He's also been the guest of countless bitcoin and cryptocurrency related podcasts throughout the world. Every opportunity, he speaks on or writes about Austrian Economics and how bitcoin is the world's preeminent money.

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