PlanB: Bitcoin to $100,000 in 2023

According to well-known analyst PlanB, the price of Bitcoin could rise to $100,000 next year in 2023. 

Both S2F and logarithmic regression point to $100K in 2023. pic.twitter.com/NHqoRpEmUl

— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) February 14, 2022

PlanB and predictions on Bitcoin at $100,000

PlanB became famous for its Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, according to which, however, the price of Bitcoin should have reached $100,000 already last year. That did not happen, but the reasoning behind it may still not be entirely wrong. 

In fact, we need to distinguish reasoning based on halving cycles and the daily path followed by the BTC price between halvings. 

In fact, Bitcoin halving cycles last on average about 3 years and 10 months, during which, however, there are always strong price fluctuations, sometimes even in the opposite direction to that indicated by the S2F.

PlanB’s S2F model is based precisely on the halving cycles and describes what happened during the past three cycles. However, it does not explain well what has happened over the short and medium-term during the current cycle, which began in May 2020. 

With the tweet published yesterday, it warns us that its S2F model could still be correct in the long term, assuming that the fateful threshold of $100,000 predicted could arrive next year. 

In fact, the next halving will occur in early 2024, and the S2F model predicts the $100,000 threshold by that date. 

Logarithmic regression

PlanB, however, this time adds another model, that of logarithmic regression. 

In fact, while the original S2F model updates significantly only at the time of halving, i.e., once every 3 years and 10 months, the logarithmic regression instead updates daily. 

The current price level would be perfectly in line with the gray curve of the logarithmic regression, and this curve would tend to reach $100,000 right in the second half of 2023. 

Again, this is a long-term projection but updated with daily BTC price data. For example, even in mid-2021, the price of Bitcoin stood on a level equal to the one indicated by the gray curve, and in the following months, it grew. A very similar thing also happened in late 2020. 

However, this graph also shows that in the previous cycle, the price of BTC stayed below this gray curve for a long time after the bursting of the big speculative bubble at the end of 2017.