Is BTC’s Price Even Predictable?
Is BTC’s Price Even Predictable?

Is BTC’s Price Even Predictable?

By Paolo Montemurro - 29 Apr 2022

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Cryptocurrencies have been in the spotlight long enough for people to understand that their prices are highly volatile. All digital coins, whether major or marginal, have been subjected to wild price swings, making investing in cryptocurrency an uncertain, even risky, enterprise.

Because the price of digital coins is unstable and depends on such unpredictable factors as competition, network of users, internal governance, countries’ rules and regulations, and even Elon Musk’s tweets, it is difficult to say with any degree of precision what direction this or that token is going in the future. Will Bitcoin’s price reach a range between $90,000 and $100,000, as some analysts predict? Or will it fall below $30,000, as other specialists fear?

Considering the volatility of the crypto market, these questions are moot. Meanwhile, the leader of cryptocurrencies has experienced a slight uptrend during Easter. Investors’ celebratory mood has brought Bitcoin 4% up to the $41,360 level. As markets historically go higher after the Easter holiday, investors are expecting BTC to continue climbing. 

Yet if we remember that Bitcoin unexpectedly dropped below $40,000 just before it jumped during Easter, to anticipate that it will follow the general trend of the global markets is unwise. Unstable as it is, Bitcoin might pull out any kind of surprise.

BTC’s Price History since January 2022

Even a cursory look at Bitcoin’s recent price history shows how vacillating its price has been since the beginning of 2022. BTC opened the year at $46,306, which was a significant retreat from the record level of $68,789 reached in November 2021. Then, within weeks, Bitcoin’s price slid more and hit a low of $33,184.

February proved even shakier for the leader of digital coins. Bitcoin soared to $45,661 on the tenth of February but could not hold the hard-won position till the end of the month. On February 24, BTC took a dive to $34,459, as global financial markets sold off, rattled by the start of the Russian-Ukrainian war.  

March witnessed Bitcoin’s highs and lows. During the first week of the month, Bitcoin’s price briefly touched the $45,000 level before quickly retreating to $37,260. After visiting the low level below $40,000, Bitcoin, however, moved upwards. On March 23, it approached $43,000. During the second week of April, BTC traded at $40,963, sinking 11% lower from its price at the start of the month. Easter buoyed Bitcoin to $41,360. 

Bitcoin’s Price Prediction

When attempting to predict Bitcoin’s future price movement, analysts look at local and global political and economic events. The Federal Reserve’s meeting in March is one of the recent events that, in their opinion, might influence the prices of cryptocurrencies. After Jerome Powell explained that there would be no drastic rate hikes in 2022, investors regained their appetite for risk-taking. 

Markets had expected seven rate hikes this year and had negatively affected the prices of cryptocurrencies with their gloomy prognosis. Yet the Federal Reserve is known to take one break after a rate hike, and there are only six meetings left in 2022. Seven hikes are, therefore, unlikely to happen.

As investors recovered their appetite for risk-taking after the Feds’ announcement, risky assets rose. Bitcoin is one of such risky assets. It has indeed been climbing since the end of March but inconsistently so. Analysts say that its main goal now should be getting out of the $35,000-$44,000 zone. If Bitcoin breaks out of this range, it might approach the $52,000 level soon. Its peers might follow suit, provided no new political or economic problem emerges in the world.   

In the long run, analysts envision Bitcoin hitting $61,298 in about 12 months. It could surge to $147,831 in five years, they say. More optimistic analysts foresee Bitcoin jumping as high as $253,921 in five years’ time. 

Yet, as is always the case with volatile cryptocurrencies, in five years, or even in 12 months, we might bring up completely different numbers when talking about BTC and other altcoins.


Paolo Montemurro

Passionate tech Entrepreneur - Blockchain nerd since early days. What my CV can't show are dozens of start-up projects: CoronaMapper, SommeliApp, Interactive CV, P-Zone, ApeHaven, GolfGuru, Autograder, GradeWallet, OTC Deals, FERA - and quite some more. Currently proud Italian Ambassador @Dextools and owner of @Blockchain Army. Love to develop stuff that works, and manage the creation of successful projects.

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