HomeCryptoBitcoinCraig S. Wright is Satoshi Nakamoto: the mathematical proof

Craig S. Wright is Satoshi Nakamoto: the mathematical proof

The theory is increasingly materializing that the true identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the mysterious creator of Bitcoin, is linked to Australian computer scientist Craig S. Wright.

Among the various suppositions, the various proofs, this time mathematics comes into play. 

Who is Craig S. Wright and why he might be Satoshi Nakamoto

Craig S. Wright claims to be the creator of Bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto.

Wright’s claim has generated intrigue and skepticism within the BTC community.

Some have supported his claim. For instance the director of the Bitcoin Foundation, Gavin Andresen, who from 2015 until 2021 was certain that Craig Wright was Satoshi Nakamoto, only to later retract his certainty.

According to Wright, he along with fellow cybersecurity expert Dave Klaiman (deceased in 2013) would be the ones who created Bitcoin. This claim led Dave Klaiman’s family to make a legal move: his brother Ira sued Wright demanding part of the $66 billion (at exchange) in Bitcoin held in Satoshi Nakamoto’s accounts.

But while the lawsuit was underway, a very clear message came out during the debates about controlling the funds through addresses in Satoshi Nakamoto’s name, stating that Wright was not the creator of Bitcoin:

“Craig Steven Wright is a liar and a fraud. He does not have the keys used to sign this message. The Lightning Network is a significant achievement. However, we must continue to work to improve the on-chain capability. Unfortunately, the solution is not simply changing a constant in the code or allowing powerful participants to force others. We are all Satoshi.”

Evidence to support Craig S. Wright’s thesis is plentiful, starting with Craig Wright’s famous published book, registered under Bitcoin’s copyright.

Math provides the truth about Satoshi Nakamoto’s identity

While it may sound strange, by means of mathematical calculations to compute probabilities it is possible to get to a truth about the real identity of Satoshi Nakamoto. 

The mathematical technique to be used is the Baynesian technique for estimating the truth of a hypothesis, and the factors to be used are the evidence before us. The mathematical model in its simplest form assumes complete credibility of each statement.

It begins by specifying a prior probability of being true.

Say: Prior probability = 10^-10

That is, one in 10 billion, a very small probability of being true. Approximately any random person living on earth has such a probability of being Satoshi without any relevant evidence attesting to the person.

In turn, this prior probability is then updated to a posterior probability in light of new relevant data (evidence).

The posterior Probability is continually updated with additional independent evidence.

With the case of Craig Wright, near certainty is reached quickly that he is Satoshi Nakamoto, given the multiple evidences of high attestation values. 

The documentary to prove Wright is the real creator of Bitcoin

Famed entrepreneur Calvin Ayre showed via Twitter several photos revealing that recordings are underway for a documentary on Craig Wright.

“I have started filming a documentary on Craig’s life creating Bitcoin. Have hired a professional team out of London and they will dig through everything including all evidence going into court for McCormack trial.”

The goal of the documentary will be to prove the true identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, aka Craig S. Wright, and bring to light all the evidence to prove it.