The price of Litecoin (LTC) rose quickly and significantly today before returning more or less to normal.
The curious thing is that since the Fed governor spoke last night, crypto markets have followed financial markets to the downside, instead Litecoin has gone against the trend.
Yesterday, in less than 4 hours the price of Litecoin went from less than $59 to more than $64, a gain of more than 10%. During the same period, for example BTC recovered only part of the losses accumulated in the previous hours, as did ETH.
Litecoin has actually been on the rise for about two weeks. Indeed, in the last seven days it has gained nearly 8%, and in the last two more than 19%.
Background: the price trend of Litecoin (LTC).
In the past, it has played an important role as it began as a transactional alternative to Bitcoin, such that it reached a capitalization of nearly $20 billion back in December 2017.
In 2018, it plunged below $1.4 billion in capitalization, only to recover somewhat over the next two years.
In May last year, it recorded its all-time high, with a price of $410 and a capitalization of more than $25 billion.
Since then, however, it has lost 85% of its value, so it has fallen to just over $4 billion in capitalization.
Despite being a first-generation cryptocurrency, it has managed to update its all-time high price during the current cycle, as the previous cycle’s record was around $370. However, the 2021 peak was only 11% higher than that of the previous cycle, whereas for example Bitcoin’s peak was 245% higher.
The fact is that Litecoin to date seems to be an outdated project in some ways, so it is hard to imagine that it still has much to give.
Litecoin’s price predictions
A halving is expected in July next year.
Litecoin is essentially based on Bitcoin’s code, although it functions slightly differently. Hence it is based on Proof-of-Work and undergoes the halving of the reward for miners.
The next halving is expected between July and August 2023, and in theory, it could also produce a reduction in selling pressure, resulting in a higher price.
However, while all three halvings of Bitcoin so far have seen similar phenomena, especially during the year following the halving of the reward for miners, the same has not happened to Litecoin in the past.
To date, there have been two halvings of Litecoin, one in August 2015 and another in August 2019.
In both cases, the price after the halving fell, although it had risen before.
In mid-June 2015 it jumped from $1.6 to $7.6 in the space of three weeks, then dropped to $2.6 in September. Since it was at $3.5 in December 2014 the effect of the halving on the price was not at all positive in the short run. During 2016, however, it rose to $4, while the real boom came the following year, thanks to Bitcoin’s post-halving bubble.
Something similar happened in 2019. After falling to around $50 in November 2018, it began to rise in April 2019, probably in anticipation of the halving, until it hit $140 in June. At that point, it began to decline until returning to around $40 in December. In 2020 it stayed around $50 until November, when it began to follow Bitcoin’s growth until May 2021.
Hence, should next year also behave similarly, we could expect a rise in the months just prior to the halving, and then a descent that would bring it back around current levels.
The fact is that according to several analysts the current price trend of LTC is following a similar trajectory to that followed before the previous two halvings.
The key question is whether it has already touched the 2022 bottom or not. Indeed, if it follows a similar trajectory in 2023 as it did in 2015 or 2019, it could rise in the months before the halving.
However, it is necessary to understand from which level this rise might begin, namely, whether the current one or an even lower one.
The 2022 annual low was recorded in mid-June at about $43. This is a level 28% lower than the current $60.
Comparing these figures with those of the previous cycle, indeed $43 might seem like a bottom. While during the previous cycle the bottom was actually below this level, nonetheless $43 is perfectly in line with the average price of 2018 and 2019.
It is also worth mentioning that the rise in recent months has seemed slow anyway, i.e., not the result of over-enthusiasm or FOMO.
Before the implosion of the Terra ecosystem, in May, the price of LTC was $100, and in June it was still just under $70. So not only does $43 seem an effectively low price, but even the current $60 does not seem like much at all.
This suggests that the June peak low may also turn out to be the 2022 bottom, and thus the pre-halving climb may also have already begun.
2) Local Top
3) Halving correction
4) Post halving pump (ATH)
— Mags.eth (@thescalpingpro) November 2, 2022