Historically, the crypto market’s trend has followed that of Bitcoin’s price, so making predictions about the crypto market for 2023 is equivalent to making them about Bitcoin’s price trend.
For example, comparing the overall capitalization of the crypto market with that of Bitcoin shows that over the years the latter has always greatly influenced the former.
Comparison of Bitcoin and crypto
Until 2015, which is the year Ethereum was born, Bitcoin’s market capitalization was always more than 85% of that of the entire crypto market. So it was more than obvious that the two trends went hand in hand.
But with the arrival of Ethereum, Bitcoin’s dominance began to decline, although by the end of 2015 it was back above 90%.
The turning point came in March 2017, which is when Bitcoin‘s dominance first fell well below 80%, never to return to those levels again.
During 2017, as Bitcoin’s dominance plummeted from 87% to 39%, its price rose from about $1,000 to about $20,000, or +1,900% in less than a year.
This was BTC’s second major price bull run after the one in 2013, and although its dominance was collapsing the trend in crypto market capitalization followed Bitcoin’s trend, posting a resounding +14,000%.
During 2018, the first post-bubble crypto bear market (since the one in 2014/2015 mostly involved Bitcoin) saw both Bitcoin’s price and crypto market capitalization fall simultaneously.
Bitcoin’s minimum price in 2018 matched the maximum price in July 2017, and the minimum level of overall crypto market capitalization went right back to that of July. It is no coincidence that the 2018 crypto market trend was very similar to that of Bitcoin’s price.
The next bull run was triggered in late 2020, and like the previous one saw a simultaneous rise in both Bitcoin price and crypto market capitalization.
In 2021, the two peak highs even coincided, whereas the 2022 peak lows occurred a month apart, November for Bitcoin and December for the crypto market.
At this point, it is entirely possible that even in 2023 the two trends will proceed at the same pace, at most a few weeks or months apart.
The predictions for 2023 for Bitcoin
Although no forecast regarding Bitcoin’s future price should be considered a certainty, 2023 is the third year after the 2020 halving, just as 2019 was the third year after the 2016 halving.
In total, only three halvings of Bitcoin have occurred so far, one every four years approximately, and in all three cases a mega speculative bubble inflated the following year, followed by a bursting and a bear market about 12 months later.
This was also the case in 2022, as it was in 2018, so it is plausible that Bitcoin’s price trend in 2023 could be similar to that of 2019.
In the event that it is – though there is no certainty – there would be a mid-year rise to be expected, followed by a slight retracement at the end of the year.
The 2019 of Bitcoin (BTC)
In 2019, the price initially rose again, after hitting a post-bubble low in December 2018 just above $3,000.
By March it had climbed back above $4,000, while in April it also managed to rise above $5,500.
In May it returned to $9,000, which is a price level it had touched often the year before. In other words, by May 2019 it had recovered all the excessive losses accumulated in 2018 with the bursting of the bubble, returning to November 2017 levels.
June 2019 was a somewhat special month because the launch of Facebook’s crypto project was announced, which then failed last year. This was an anomalous event, so much so that after nearly touching $14,000, Bitcoin’s price returned to $9,000 in September.
Sometime between November and December it even fell below $7,000, but only to return above $9,000 in January 2020. It is worth remembering that when the trend is bearish, the price of Bitcoin often falls by the end of the year and then generally recovers somewhat with the start of the new year.
Predictions for 2023 for the crypto market
Imagining a possible similar trend in 2023, and extending it to the entire crypto market, one could expect an initial 30% increase, which has already happened, followed by an additional 35% increase, which has also already happened.
As a matter of fact, compared to the $15,500 minimum price in 2022, the price of Bitcoin during 2023 has already made an initial +30% bringing it to $20,000, followed by a +35% bringing it up to $27,000.
Thus the first two increases in 2023 correspond almost perfectly in percentages to the first two increases in 2019.
The third increase in 2019 was 60%, so if it occurs in 2023 starting from today’s values, Bitcoin’s price could extend to $43,000, with the crypto market capitalization expected to skyrocket to nearly $1 trillion.
It is worth noting, however, that percentage increases, as well as declines, differ between Bitcoin and the crypto market capitalization, to the point that the only thing that is generally aligned is the general upward or downward trend.
So as far as the crypto market is concerned, it is possible to say that if a trend similar to that of 2019 were to be repeated during 2023, its capitalization could grow a lot more.
Conversely, the last two months of the year could be characterized by a 30% or 35% drop in Bitcoin’s price, assuming again that the 2023 trend replicates that of 2019. However, this loss could be recovered as early as January 2024.
In other words, it is possible that 2023 will be characterized by a few months of further growth from current values, followed by a period of lateralization that could end at the end of the year with a decline.