Crypto market prices are being dragged upward today by a lively Bitcoin.
Indeed, for the first time since 10 June 2022, the price of BTC rose above $30,000.
However, the most interesting thing was the way it rose above this threshold.
Summary
Crypto market prices today: Bitcoin’s dominance
One important element that emerged yesterday was the difference between Bitcoin’s daily price growth and that of the other major cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin posted +6%, significantly higher than the daily gain of all other top 10, except Solana, which posted +8%.
Among the top 20, only Litecoin posted a similar gain, while the others posted +4% or less.
Notably, the price of Ethereum rose only 3%, with daily growth half that of Bitcoin.
In other words, yesterday’s crypto market growth was led by BTC, despite tomorrow being an important day for ETH with the launch of the Shanghai update.
Taking Bitcoin’s dominance as a reference, yesterday it rose close to one-year highs, coming very close to the record high of 11 June 2022. These are higher than even the levels touched in October 2021, at the height of the bull run, and lower only than those in July of the same year.
Although Bitcoin’s dominance is still less than 50%, it must be said that since May 2021, which is since the first peak of altcoins during the last big bull run, it has never again been able to exceed this threshold. And the current value is very close to the highs touched after the altcoin peak in May 2021.
However, it is worth mentioning that before the bull run began in November 2020, it was above 60%.
The relationship with Ethereum
Perhaps even more interesting is the ratio of BTC’s market capitalization to that of ETH.
Bitcoin capitalizes about $580 billion, while Ethereum $230. The ratio is currently 2.5 to 1, but just five days ago it was below 2.4.
It is possible that the price of ETH was affected by the “buy the rumors, sell the news” strategy referring to tomorrow’s Shanghai update, as from 3 to 6 April the BTC/ETH ratio fell in just three days from 2.52 to 2.37.
However, already the next day a rebound of sorts began, which brought that ratio back above 2.5 yesterday.
It is worth noting that the current level is by far the highest level since the June 2022 crash, since before that crash it was almost at 3, but afterwards it slipped to 1.83 in mid-September.
That slide was caused by the anticipation of the Merge, which would have replaced Proof-of-Work with Proof-of-Stake in Ethereum, but even after the Merge it had never again risen above 2.4.
So the wait for the Shanghai update managed to bring it back below 2.4, but only for a few days, after which Bitcoin seems to have resumed its run.
The reason for today’s rise in crypto market prices
There were no news stories coming out yesterday to justify a rise in Bitcoin’s price above $30,000.
However, it is worth noting that several analysts had already shown charts on Sunday showing possible upward momentum.
On the other hand, in 2023 the trend that Bitcoin’s price is following is similar to that of 2019, which was the year following the previous post-bubble bear-market, by which time in 2019 there was a resounding spike at the beginning of April.
This year such a spike in early April had not occurred, but a smaller one still took place about eight days late.
The crypto markets have done nothing but follow this Bitcoin spike, albeit in smaller proportions, with a few exceptions.
It is therefore possible that the real reason behind yesterday’s spike in Bitcoin’s price is solely the medium-term trend, which is following a similar path to that of 2019, and which in April simply had not surged yet.
It shouldn’t be forgotten that tomorrow’s US stock market could greatly affect the crypto markets.
The US stock market
Truth be told, the US stock market also chipped in yesterday, as it was open.
It had opened sharply down, but over the course of the day it then recovered its entire daily loss and ended up closing at even or slightly positive.
The US stock market is being weighed down by fears over the March inflation figure to be released tomorrow, but yesterday it showed that it is not at all dominated by fear.
Indeed, perhaps there is even a little too much optimism, as the expectation for tomorrow is a figure between 5.2% and 5.3%, compared to a February figure of 6 %.
In February there had already been a significant drop from 5.4% in January, so an even greater drop in March does not seem particularly likely. Yesterday’s US stock market performance does indeed seem to suggest cautious optimism, which might also be misplaced should the figure released tomorrow be instead closer to February’s 6% than the hoped-for 5.2%.
It is worth noting that yesterday’s spike in Bitcoin occurred only at first with the US stock market opened and rising, followed by two more moments of growth with the US stock market now closed. These other two moments occurred almost concurrently with two moments of growth on Asian stock markets, and in particular the Japanese stock market.
In other words, the price of Bitcoin is continuing its recovery path, as it did in 2019, somehow taking advantage of moments of growth in global markets. That is why we need to pay attention to what will happen tomorrow.
