Starting from 13 May, the value of Bitcoin and Ethereum has been decidedly stable, compared to that of early 2023.
It is enough to mention that nine days ago the price of BTC was virtually identical to what it is now, and the same is true for Ethereum.
The current value of Bitcoin: same trend as Ethereum?
The fact is that market demand for BTC is continuing to stabilize, even with financial markets moving nervously into the second half of the year.
In fact, even yesterday’s overall trading volumes are perfectly in line with those of nine days ago, although between last Monday and Thursday they were more than twice as high as they are today.
Today’s price is not only perfectly in line with that of 13 May, but also with that of the past five days.
During this brief period of great stability, the high has been $27,600, and the low $26,300, which is a very compressed weekly range for Bitcoin‘s patterns.
However, it is worth noting that in previous weeks it had moved significantly, with a descent from $31,000 to $25,800 in about thirty days.
It is possible that this descent has now stopped, not least because the current values are also in line with those of late March, that is, before it began its ascent to the 2023 annual highs above $31,000.
Nonetheless, it should be noted that the current price is still 61% higher than it was at the beginning of the year, and 10 % higher than it was in mid-March.
Current value of Ethereum: trend follows that of Bitcoin
The price trend of ETH has been very similar.
However, there have been some differences from Bitcoin.
The first, and most obvious, is that in mid-April ETH made a +14% while BTC settled for +9%, but soon afterwards even the retracement was greater for Ethereum than for Bitcoin.
In fact to date the price of ETH is only 6% higher than it was in mid-March.
Whereas in the last ten days, the price trend of ETH and BTC is almost identical, i.e., very stable compared to the usual.
Compared to the April highs, Bitcoin is now at -13%, while Ethereum is at -15%. The difference is mainly explained by ETH’s greater increase in mid-April, although compared to the beginning of the year Ethereum is at +51%, compared to +61% for Bitcoin.
General market uncertainty
The crypto markets are going through a time of great uncertainty, effectively following the traditional markets, and due mainly to the wait for news coming from the Fed, the US central bank, in particular.
The fact is that in recent months the Fed has gained a reputation for being unreliable, and this is generating uncertainty especially about its future moves.
For example, until a few days ago, markets were assuming that a further rate hike in mid-June was possible, but after Powell’s speech on Friday they have reverted to the view that this is unlikely.
Compared to ten days ago, gold has slightly lost value in financial markets, while the dollar has risen.
The very rise of the dollar suggests that many investors are simply waiting to decide what to do, that is, they have sold assets in order to cash in dollars, to reinvest as soon as possible.
For now, however, they have not yet decided what to invest them in.
It is worth noting that since mid-March, which is the time when the banking crisis began in the US, gold, Bitcoin and crypto markets have first risen and then fallen, whereas the US dollar first fell and then rose.
Therefore, the situation of real and deep uncertainty was triggered in the aftermath of the Fed’s latest decision to raise rates in early May.
The unfolding of the situation
However, it is difficult to imagine that this situation will continue until 14 June, the day the Fed announces its new decision on interest rates.
Ten days of stability is already on average a long time for crypto markets, so to think that we are facing another twenty days of such stability is rather unlikely.
However, for now there does not yet seem to be anything that can destabilize this situation in the short term, either in one direction or the other, barring resounding sudden events of great impact.
Moreover, starting from 1 June, the US government could go into default if Parliament stubbornly refuses to approve the increase in public debt.
It is worth mentioning, however, that this is a situation that has occurred often before, and so far it has always been resolved by approval of the increase.
Markets do not seem to believe that there is any real possibility that the US House will let the government go into default, even though the latter is a Democrat while Republicans dominate in the House, albeit by a very small margin.
However, what does seem certain is that Bitcoin, Ethereum and the crypto markets right now are largely dependent on what happens in the US at the political-financial level, with the risk of recession looming between now and the end of the year.