The current Bitcoin bull run is generating fewer whales than previous bull runs have done.
A recent analysis by Kaiko indeed shows how the daily number of new millionaire wallets per hour has remained below two thousand, while during the last bull run they were over four thousand.
Summary
The return of whales during the Bitcoin bull run
The chart published by Kaiko shows that the number of wallets holding more than one million dollars in Bitcoin peaked at the end of 2021, as expected, and then decreased significantly throughout 2022.
The really curious thing, instead, is that in the last few days it has remained very far from the peaks of 2021, in line instead with those of 2023.
Kaiko analysts specify that in 2021 there was a huge influx of capital, as all the bulls tried to take advantage of the hype on cryptocurrencies.
This time, however, the whales would be adopting a more cautious approach, probably waiting to see if the current price levels will hold before investing further.
This suggests that new capital inflows may still need to arrive completely, or that some large whales are taking profit by exploiting the new highs in the price of BTC.
This second hypothesis would also be supported by other data, such as a slight increase in BTC present on exchanges in recent days.
It is important to underline that the metric used by Kaiko in this analysis is not that of millionaire wallets, but of new millionaire wallets per day, and that whales often keep their assets with custodians rather than in their own wallets.
The ongoing bull run
Moreover, it is quite evident that the current bull run is very different from the previous ones.
All three previous major bull runs (2013, 2017, and 2021) occurred the year following the halving, probably triggered by the effects of the halving itself.
This one instead started months before the halving, and is actually happening a year ahead of schedule.
It is therefore not surprising that this is a bull run different from, for example, that of 2021, also because for the first time it is happening with the Bitcoin spot ETFs available on US stock exchanges.
This reasoning would also seem to support the hypothesis that for now the bull run may still be only in its initial stages, also because all three of the past major bull runs have set historical highs significantly higher than the previous ones.
If this were the case, the hypothesis that the still relatively low number of new daily millionaire wallets could be due to profit-taking would be strengthened, as it could mean that once profit-taking is over, the supply of BTC on the markets could start to decrease again.
In addition, it should be added that the halving will halve the rewards for miners, and therefore the number of Bitcoin they will sell on the markets.
Bull run still in its early stages?
This hypothesis is also the one that the famous analyst PlanB is reasoning about.
Comparing the chart of the three previous major bull runs with the current bull run, the enormous difference is immediately perceived.
In particular, PlanB points out that in the past the halving had never been priced in advance by markets.
However, this time it seems that the markets are already pricing it in, although it seems that PlanB does not agree with this interpretation.
So if this time the halving is not yet priced in, as in the past, we can expect a further rise in the price of BTC even in the months following the halving itself, otherwise we can probably expect a post-halving retracement, since the concrete effect on the price of BTC of halving the reward for miners usually occurs months after the halving event.
It is also possible that whales are waiting to see if markets are already pricing in the effects of the halving or not, because what we are witnessing in recent weeks could also be just the effect of the new ETFs.
