Historically, the price of Bitcoin in October has risen, so much so that this month has been nicknamed “uptober” by those who make crypto predictions.

Also this year there are several crypto predictions that suggest October could be a positive month. 

Crypto predictions: Uptober coming for Bitcoin?

The name uptober is a play on words that combines the word up with otcober, which is the English term for October. 

The assonance between october and uptober does the rest. 

If october simply means October, uptober would mean something like “month in which it goes up”. 

It has been years since this term has been circulating, especially in the crypto field but also in traditional markets. 

The performance of Bitcoin in October 

Analyzing the monthly performance of the price of BTC reveals that in October, there have been negative performances only twice out of 11 occasions.

This analysis starts from 2013, that is, ignoring the first cycle of Bitcoin since that was a decidedly anomalous cycle.

Taking into consideration only the last three cycles, of which the last one started only this year, in the last eleven years there have been nine positive October months for the price of BTC. 

Furthermore, taking into consideration the two years of the halvings that marked the end of the second and third cycle (2016 and 2020), in both cases October was positive. 

In particular, the month of October 2016 ended with a +14% monthly, while 2020 ended with a +27%. 

The best monthly performance ever for the price of Bitcoin from 2013 to today in October turns out to be precisely that of 2013, with a +60% that, however, occurred in the midst of a speculative bubble, moreover close to the highs of the following November. Even the other two years in which great bullruns occurred, 2017 and 2021, in October recorded very high monthly performances, respectively +47% and +40%.

This year there was the halving in April, so in theory it could resemble 2016 or 2020, while the year of the first halving, 2012, fell almost completely within the first cycle of Bitcoin, which is commonly not taken as a reference point for analyses because it is too anomalous. 

The forecasts on the price of the crypto Bitcoin: Uptober atmosphere

According to various crypto predictions circulating online, October 2024 could once again prove to be an uptober. 

However, there is no agreement on what the specific performance in percentage terms might be.

However, it is possible to analyze the performance of October 2016 and 2020 to have at least a point of reference. 

The key point in those months was the possible return to previous all-time highs. The all-time high price in Bitcoin’s second cycle was recorded in November 2013, above $1,100. The all-time high of the next cycle, recorded in December 2017, was nearly $20,000. 

In October 2016, the rise in the price of BTC stopped just above $700, still slightly distant from the previous highs. These were reached only in January 2017. 

In October 2020, the rise in the price of BTC reached up to $13,700, but it continued the following month with a return to almost $20,000. 

The situation this year, however, is different, because the all-time high was already reached in March. 

However, perhaps in this phase, rather than taking as a reference the historical maximum of the previous cycle, namely the 69,000$ reached in November 2021, or that of 2024 (73,800$), it might be better to take as a reference the potential maximum of 2021 set at 100,000$, even if this was never reached. The fact is that the second phase of the bullrun of 2021 was probably very limited by the Chinese ban in May, making it impossible to reach the expected target. 

At this point, if October 2024 turns out to be similar to that of 2016 or 2020, the price of Bitcoin could return above $70,000. 

The other two key levels to keep an eye on are $75,000, and eventually $80,000, even though these today seem like more difficult milestones to reach. 

What happens in September in the crypto market?

The reason why in October financial markets often perform well could be due to the fact that in September they perform poorly. 

For example, over the course of its history, from 2013 to today, eight times out of eleven the price of BTC in September has fallen. 

In 2020 September closed with a +7%, even though in 2016 it closed with a +6%. 

September 2024 started with Bitcoin just below $59,000, so for now the cumulative gain is 7%, in line with 2016. 

In other words, there are vague signals that 2024 might also record performances similar to those of 2016, or those of 2020, although obviously there is still no certainty about it. 

To keep a close eye on the monetary policy of the Chinese bank which, together with the Fed’s rate cut, is perhaps responsible for the good performance this September. The circulating hypothesis is that China’s expansive monetary policy may not only continue in October, but may even intensify. 

Given that the trend of Bitcoin’s price is very sensitive to changes in liquidity, large campaigns of expansive monetary policies by the world’s largest central banks should have a positive impact.