Bitcoin down after the FOMC rally, but the probability of a return to $100,000 increases

Investors are taking profits on Bitcoin (BTC) after the FOMC rally, but on-chain data suggests otherwise. Other notable cryptocurrencies, such as Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL), have also experienced significant declines. However, Tron (TRX) and Toncoin (TON) were the only assets in the sector to show gains, each recording a 2% increase.

Despite the correction, the probability that Bitcoin will exceed $100,000 by June 30 has risen close to 30%.  

The predictions on the price of Bitcoin (BTC) after profit-taking

In the Asian morning on Friday, cryptocurrencies experienced a decline after the previous day’s rally, in line with analysts’ expectations. Overall, the crypto market capitalization decreased by 3.2%, with BTC falling from 86,000 to less than 84,000 dollars. ETH also suffered a loss, dropping below 2,000 dollars, and SOL recorded a sharp decline of 5%.  

XRP continued its previous phase of decline, dampening Wednesday’s 10% gain and reducing it to a weekly increase of 4.8%. On the other hand, Binance Coin (BNB) maintained a bull trend, with weekly gains exceeding 8%.  

The market movements followed a dynamic expected by many traders, who had predicted a retracement after the initial enthusiasm related to the decision of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) not to announce cuts to interest rates.  

Tron and Toncoin buck the trend: TRX and TON grow by 2%  

Among the few criptovalute to register gains, Tron (TRX) and Toncoin (TON) saw an increase of 2%. TRX made its debut on Solana Thursday evening, an initiative aimed at expanding its user base.

In the meantime, the growth of Toncoin has been fueled by a surge in demand from retail investors. This interest follows an announcement from the Toncoin Foundation, according to which major venture capital firms have recently committed over 400 million dollars to the project.  

These developments have helped to keep the interest in TRX and TON lively, despite the general bear trend of the market.  

The role of the FOMC and the impact on the direction of Bitcoin  

Last Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee meeting acted as a catalyst for the market, pushing Bitcoin beyond 85,000 dollars. The lack of communication regarding new interest rate cuts generated an initial bull wave. However, the market sentiment subsequently cooled down.

The Federal Reserve has announced its intention to reduce its “quantitative tightening” program starting in April. According to analysts at QCP Capital, this decision could be interpreted by traders as an indirect signal of rate cuts, with a potential positive impact on the demand for risky assets like Bitcoin.

As a result, the options market has started to position itself strategically, showing increasing confidence in the potential of BTC for the coming months.  

Bitcoin at $100,000 by June? The probabilities are increasing  

According to Dr. Sean Dawson, head of research at the on-chain options platform Derive.xyz, the probability that Bitcoin will exceed $100,000 by June 30 has increased from 20% to 30% in the last 24 hours.  

This increase in positive expectations has been reflected in the behavior of investors in options on Bitcoin and Ethereum. For BTC, 34% of the traded volumes consisted of purchases of bear hedge options, still reflecting a certain caution.

For ETH, however, almost 60% of the options traded on Derive.xyz were calls (purchases), indicating a more bull sentiment. However, the probability that ETH will remain above $2,000 by the end of June has decreased from 40% to about 50%.  

These data highlight the growing uncertainty among investors, who balance bull attitudes with the need to protect their positions.  

Technical levels and possible market developments  

Alex Kuptsikevich, analyst at FxPro, highlighted the crucial level of $80,000 as a fundamental support for Bitcoin.  

According to Kuptsikevich, the cryptocurrency market has not yet surpassed the 200-day moving average, currently close to 2.9 trillion dollars in total capitalization. A decisive break above this level could trigger a more aggressive buying phase.  

However, traders remain cautious, as the bear market has already created several “bull traps” in the past. If Bitcoin manages to stay above the current resistance levels, it could encourage a renewed interest in purchasing altcoins and memecoins, which are currently in a corrective phase.  

Conclusions  

The cryptocurrency market continues to show mixed signals after the initial enthusiasm for the Federal Reserve’s decisions. Bitcoin experienced a drop below 84,000 dollars due to profit-taking, but expectations for future growth remain solid.  

Some analysts see the level of 80,000 dollars as a key point to monitor, while the increase in the probability of BTC exceeding the 100,000 dollar mark by June suggests that the options market is betting on a continuation of the bull trend.

At the same time, Tron and Toncoin have stood out as resilient assets, indicating that some investors continue to identify opportunities in the sector despite the recent turmoil. With the global economic outlook constantly evolving, market operators will continue to closely monitor the upcoming developments of the Federal Reserve and the critical technical movements of Bitcoin.