UBS Global Research has raised the bar for Wall Street’s future forecasts, highlighting growth driven by artificial intelligence.
According to the note released by the European investment bank, the rally that has characterized the U.S. markets in recent months is not expected to end soon.
In fact, UBS predicts that the S&P 500 will reach 7,500 by the end of 2026, driven by strong corporate earnings growth and increasingly central technology in the global economy.
Summary
The Central Role of Technology and AI
Big Tech and Record Investments
The recent surge of the S&P 500, which closed at 6,728.80 points last Friday, was fueled by investor enthusiasm for AI potential and solid corporate earnings.
In particular, tech giants like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Alphabet continue to be the main drivers of this rally, thanks to unprecedented investments in infrastructure and development related to artificial intelligence.
According to UBS, AI-related spending is generating record levels of capex (capital expenditures), significantly contributing to the resilience and growth of the technology sector.
Despite concerns from some analysts about a potential market bubble or overvaluation of AI stocks, the Swiss bank believes these risks are marginal compared to the growth potential.
Earnings Forecasts and Growth Acceleration
UBS estimates that the earnings of the S&P 500 will grow by 14.4% until 2026. After several quarters of slower growth, the bank anticipates an acceleration starting from the second quarter of next year.
This positive trend is expected to solidify as the adoption of AI spreads into new sectors and companies continue to invest in innovation.
A Look at the Global Economy
Acceleration Expected in 2026
In its analysis titled “Global Economics and Markets Outlook 2026-2027”, UBS does not limit its focus to the United States.
The bank forecasts that the global economy will accelerate in 2026, driven by increased business and consumer confidence and new fiscal stimulus measures in major world economies.
However, UBS advises caution in the short term. In the next four to five months, it will be necessary to overcome a “soft patch” phase, characterized by the persistent impact of tariffs on domestic prices in the United States and on exports globally.
Only after this adjustment phase, according to the bank, will the benefits of a more robust recovery be visible.
Focus on Emerging Markets and China
Among emerging markets, UBS shows a preference for Chinese stocks and the yuan. The institution highlights how increasing confidence, declining real rates, and the recovery of credit are creating conditions for further monetary policy easing by central banks in emerging countries.
These factors could foster a new phase of growth for developing economies, with China at the forefront thanks to supportive policies and increased openness to foreign investments.
Changes in Global Financial Flows
The Role of the Dollar and Safe Alternatives
UBS also highlights a potential shift in global financial flows.
According to the bank, the traditional “safe haven” status of the US dollar and Treasuries could be challenged by alternatives such as German Bunds, gold, and currencies of the European bloc.
This scenario could materialize especially if inflation in the United States significantly decreases in the second half of 2026, reducing the appeal of American government bonds.
The Outlook for Investors
Opportunities and Risks in the New Scenario
UBS forecasts outline a landscape of opportunities for investors, especially for those who can seize trends related to artificial intelligence and technological innovation.
The growth of earnings, the resilience of big tech, and the expansion of emerging markets represent the main drivers for the coming years.
However, risks are not lacking: volatility linked to geopolitical factors, uncertainty regarding monetary policies, and the potential deflation of tech valuations are elements to be closely monitored.
UBS therefore advises maintaining a balanced approach and diversifying the portfolio, taking advantage of opportunities offered by different markets and asset classes.
Conclusions: Wall Street Looks to the Future with Confidence
UBS’s message is clear: the artificial intelligence revolution will continue to drive the growth of financial markets, with the S&P 500 set to surpass new records by 2026.
The combination of rising earnings, technological innovation, and global stimulus policies creates a favorable environment for investors, while requiring attention and adaptability in a rapidly evolving world.
