There are fewer and fewer Bitcoin on crypto exchanges.
According to CryptoQuant data, today another low of the current cycle has been recorded again.
Although there is a relatively simple explanation for this dynamic, there is also a parameter that paints a more complex and decidedly less rosy picture.
In fact, long-term holders who are in profit are clearly decreasing.
Summary
The declining supply
The data monitored by CryptoQuant refers only to crypto exchanges.
Although this may seem like a limitation, it should actually be remembered that the real price of Bitcoin is precisely the one formed by spot trading on exchanges, that is, when someone buys or sells real BTC in exchange for fiat currency.
Starting from April 2024, the total number of BTC held in deposit on crypto exchange addresses began to fall.
In four months it went from more than 3.2 million to less than 3.1 million, but starting from November of the same year, with Trump’s election victory, a strong and long decline was triggered that is still ongoing.
This decline actually occurred in four distinct phases, two of which coincided with an increase in the price of Bitcoin, and two with decreases.
To date, a minimum low of about 2.67 million BTC has been reached, i.e. 17% lower than the values of two years ago, and this should have had a positive impact on the price.
In fact, in general those who deposit BTC on a crypto exchange do so primarily to sell them, so that figure can be taken as a proxy to estimate changes in selling pressure.
In other words, Bitcoin selling pressure on crypto exchanges is currently at the lows of the current cycle, although since buying pressure is also very low this is not enough to push the price back up.
The cause
In theory, the main cause of this sort of small “flight” of BTC from crypto exchanges should be precisely the withdrawal of Bitcoin by long-term holders, who generally prefer to store them in non-custodial wallets.
However, since the downward trend mentioned above began in April 2024, it is very likely that the main cause was another one: ETFs.
In January 2024, the first spot Bitcoin ETFs were launched on traditional US stock exchanges, that is, funds that must physically hold BTC as collateral for the shares they sell.
For example, the main one of these ETFs (BlackRock’s IBIT), according to data from bitcointreasuries.net, initially held only a few tens of thousands of BTC, while it now holds more than 800,000.
In total, over the past two years, spot Bitcoin ETFs have effectively drained more than 1.6 million BTC from the market, and part of these come from crypto exchanges.
In reality, these ETFs do not source directly from crypto exchanges, but from OTC desks which, however, are sometimes very likely forced to go and get BTC from exchanges in the event of purchase requests that they are otherwise unable to meet.
It should be remembered that what is traded on the stock exchange for spot Bitcoin ETFs are their shares, not their BTC.
The bad news
So far everything would seem basically positive, but there is also some bad news to add.
As analyst Darkfost revealed on X, the percentage of Bitcoin LTH (Long Term Holders) in profit has recently fallen significantly.
Although this parameter is currently not at the lows reached at the end of 2015 below 50%, it is however currently at the lows of the current cycle.
It should be noted that it is rather rare for the percentage of long-term Bitcoin holders in profit to fall below 50%, so much so that it happened only in 2015, due to the worst bear market in the entire history of Bitcoin.
For example, in 2018/2019 the minimum low was reached just below 55%, while in 2022/2023 it was reached just above 55%.
As of today, this percentage has fallen to 66.5%, a figure much lower than the 100% of October 2025, but still clearly higher than the lows of previous cycles.
According to Darkfost, this level is currently approaching a negative extreme, although during previous bear markets even lower lows were reached, although this trend has gradually weakened over time.
Therefore, he concludes that the market could still impose further suffering on LTHs, but for now conditions are not deteriorating further.
