After several consecutive days of inflows, outflows have returned on Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.
These dynamics are closely tied to price movements, so there is nothing surprising about it.
Moreover, a price rebound might be enough to bring ETF inflows back as well.
Summary
Bitcoin ETFs
Yesterday, for the first time since April 14, there were net overall outflows on Bitcoin ETFs.
After nine consecutive trading sessions with net overall inflows, yesterday saw 263 million dollars flow out. However, it should also be said that already on Friday inflows were very limited, at just 14 million.
In the previous nine sessions the total inflows exceeded 2.1 billion dollars, which nonetheless shows that the daily average was not high at all. In fact, the all-time daily record was more than 1.3 billion, so over nine days this daily record was not even doubled.
Note that yesterday’s outflow was instead in line with that of April 13, before the sequence of nine consecutive positive sessions began.
It should also be noted that since the beginning of the year there have only been eight sessions worse than yesterday’s in total.
However, a single bolt from the blue does not make the difference, so it will be very important to follow what happens today and in the coming days of the current week, to understand whether this is just a bolt from the blue, or a real storm.
Ethereum ETFs
For Ethereum, on the other hand, the situation is more nuanced and tangled.
In fact, outflows had already been recorded last Thursday, even though they came after a positive period that had lasted longer.
In other words, as far as Ethereum ETFs are concerned, in the last four trading sessions positive sessions (two) and negative sessions (another two) have alternated continuously.
Moreover, these are limited flows, so much so that yesterday outflows barely exceeded 50 million, while on Friday inflows were below 24.
Therefore, the overall trend is similar to that of Bitcoin, but it differs on some individual days because it turns out to be more volatile.
Price performance
Certainly, the price performance of BTC and ETH on the market has influenced this dynamic.
After climbing back above $77,000 last Wednesday, the price of Bitcoin seemed able to hold that psychological level, so much so that last week it tried twice to even approach $80,000, although it did not succeed.
Yesterday, in the end, it not only fell, but also dropped back below $77,000, dissipating the positive sentiment accumulated in previous days.
It should not be forgotten that growth assets in general on the US stock exchanges have also followed a similar pattern, with a rebound that began about three weeks ago and actually ended already on Friday.
In the medium/long term, the price of Bitcoin tends to follow that of growth assets in general, and often even follows it in the short term. The failed attempt to return to $80,000 over the weekend goes hand in hand with the end of the recent mini-rally of growth assets that already occurred on Friday.
As for Ethereum, since Friday it has basically been following the same trend as Bitcoin.
From the end of March to mid-April, the price of ETH had on average performed better than that of BTC, but then performed worse from April 14 to 23. Since Friday 24, however, the two trends have essentially aligned.
A hot week
Starting today, and especially from tomorrow, the current week could heat up.
In reality, there is a lot of uncertainty as to whether a clear direction in price movements may emerge, but it instead seems quite likely that there will be volatility even in the possible absence of directionality.
In theory, this should indeed be a decidedly hot week for financial markets, both because several important quarterly reports will be published, and because several central banks will announce their monetary policies, starting with the Fed.
However, there is still so much uncertainty that it seems almost impossible to predict what might happen. The only thing that can be predicted is that, again in theory, there should be volatility.
