As usual, various forecasts are circulating regarding the future trend of the price of Bitcoin.
In particular, there are different forecasts depending on whether the short, medium, or long term is taken into consideration.
Today we focus on the medium-short term, examining the forecasts for the month of May.
However, it should be emphasized that the current moment is still one of great uncertainty, which makes it even more difficult to make long-term forecasts. In fact, right now even in the medium term it is extremely difficult to understand with certainty what might happen, while only in the short term is there a bit of visibility.
Summary
The month of May
First of all, it must be said that, historically, the month of May has often been a rather uninteresting month.
Indeed, it is often so uninteresting that the saying “sell in May, and go away” was coined, precisely because it is generally advisable to close all positions and think about reopening them only in the following months.
However, for Bitcoin, for example, May 2022 was a very intense month, characterized by a real crash triggered by the implosion of the Terra/Luna crypto ecosystem.
The fact is that 2026 in some ways recalls 2022, given that the Bitcoin price cycle lasts four years, like that of the US elections.
That said, “sell in May, and go away” could also turn out to be a good strategy this year, although in the event of a new crash the best strategy might be to short the price of Bitcoin down to a possible new bottom.
The forecast
What we have just analyzed, however, is not a real forecast.
Real forecasts are circulating anyway, although they are generally very cautious, and range from moderately bullish to neutral.
In fact, most analysts and technical models expect a month of consolidation or slight increase, without major short-term jolts.
Unlike 2022, in fact, a decidedly low minimum compared to the previous average was already recorded in February, so not many are expecting sharp drops.
Moreover, for a couple of months now, the hypothesis has been circulating that until June the price of Bitcoin could rise slightly, something that turns out to be compatible with at least one relevant dynamic.
The accumulation of institutional whales
After the price of Bitcoin went on to record a local low at around $60,000 at the beginning of February, a period of accumulation began.
This is a period during which institutional whales accumulated BTC, although not in a particularly large way.
There are two elements of this dynamic that are compatible with the slightly bullish forecast for May and June.
The first is that above $70,000 institutional whales stopped accumulating BTC. In fact, they accumulated most of it below $68,000, then slowly reduced their purchases as the price climbed back above $70,000.
This indicates that they are not expecting a long and massive bull run, but only a small bull run that could push the price above $80,000.
The second is that, despite the price having already approached $80,000 last week, they did not start selling.
This implies that they are expecting further increases.
Putting the two things together, the scenario that emerges as most likely, among those that may have driven institutional whales to such behavior, is precisely that of a further rise for a few more weeks, or at most a few months.
The other forecasts
On Changelly, a rise in May is hypothesized up to a level between $80,200 and $84,000.
On Tapbit, instead, the range is lower, between $79,500 and $82,500.
On CoinCodex, instead, it is hypothesized that April’s highs will not be exceeded in May, with a range between $77,900 and $79,400.
On Binance, however, it is hypothesized that in May the price of Bitcoin could even have the strength to push up to $118,000, although the lower limit of the range is instead hypothesized at $79,800. With such a wide range, forecasts like this are of limited usefulness.
Analyst Michaël van de Poppe hypothesizes a range between $85,000 and $88,000, while other technical outlooks hypothesize a range between $75,000 and $82,000.
The prevailing sentiment is in fact moderately bullish, but with downside risks that could follow a hypothetical mini-rally.
In summary, the most widely shared forecasts point to a range between $78,000 and $85,000 for the month of May, with a high risk of volatility and consolidation.
