According to a recent internal research note from JPMorgan, in the second half of 2026 the trend of Bitcoin’s price will depend above all on Strategy’s funding strategy and on the progress of the Clarity Act.
The document is not public, but its contents have nonetheless leaked to the press.
This new stance by JPMorgan regarding the price of Bitcoin is characterized by a decidedly more cautious tone than in the past, and reflects the ongoing tensions in the crypto markets between innovation, regulatory needs, and the traditional interests of the banking sector.
Summary
Strategy
Strategy (formerly Microstrategy) is continuing to follow the strategy dictated by Michael Saylor.
Over the years it has accumulated more than 800,000 BTC, buying even at prices close to the highs for several weeks.
In fact, it has turned its own treasury into a proxy vehicle for exposure to Bitcoin.
With the collapse of Bitcoin’s price during the current bear market it could run into problems, so much so that the price of its shares (MSTR) in the last eleven months has in turn collapsed from more than $450 to less than $130. A 72% drop, much greater than Bitcoin’s -50% from the October highs.
In fact, not only has the current price of Bitcoin fallen below Strategy’s average purchase price, but the company has also recently had to sell 32 BTC (about 2.5 million dollars) for the first time since the previous bear market.
According to JPMorgan, this transaction is still very limited in size compared to total reserves, but it nonetheless raises questions about the company’s future financial obligations. In fact, Strategy has to meet about 1.7 billion dollars a year in dividends on preferred stock, and its current cash reserves in dollars would cover only a little more than six months of these payments.
Therefore, JPMorgan analysts have pointed out that investors might become concerned in the event of further BTC sales, introducing a new element of risk. In fact, Strategy has historically financed BTC purchases through equity and debt, and a weaker crypto market or high funding costs could force it into more substantial liquidations, with potential negative impacts on the price of Bitcoin.
Clarity Act
The so‑called Clarity Act represents an ambitious attempt to create a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States.
The bill already passed the House in 2025, but this year it is struggling to be approved by the Senate.
Previously, JPMorgan had forecast final approval by mid‑2026, considering it a potential positive catalyst for the market in the second half of the year, since it would provide regulatory clarity and put an end to “regulation by enforcement,” favoring institutional adoption.
Instead, final approval by June 30 now seems to have faded, so much so that according to bettors on Polymarket there would now be only a little more than a 50% chance that it could even be approved by the end of the year.
Thus the latest reports from JPMorgan indicate a change in outlook, also because the useful legislative window for approval is narrowing due to the calendar ahead of the November midterm elections. With only a few legislative weeks available before the summer recess and the election campaign, the path to approval still requires 60 votes in the Senate, reconciliation with the House version, and the presidential signature.
Moreover, the main sticking point concerns the native yields of stablecoins, which many traditional banks, including JPMorgan itself, oppose.
For example, JPMorgan’s CEO, Jamie Dimon, has spoken out clearly and openly against some aspects of the Clarity Act. His statements have sparked a heated debate between traditional banks and the crypto industry.
Impact on the price of Bitcoin
Indeed, the trend of Bitcoin’s price seems to be influenced, among other things, by these two specific factors as well.
Ultimately, on the one hand, hypothetical large sales of BTC by Strategy could increase selling pressure, while on the other hand the possible approval of the Clarity Act could instead unlock significant institutional flows, promote the tokenization of real‑world assets, and reduce legal uncertainty.
Bitcoin may be in a transitional phase that in reality also concerns the entire crypto ecosystem.
JPMorgan is becoming very cautious with its forecasts, because the path followed by the trend of Bitcoin’s price is never linear.
This analysis by JPMorgan could be considered a reminder that Bitcoin’s future does not depend only on halvings, ETFs, or technological adoption, but also on corporate funding dynamics and political decisions in Washington.
In the meantime, however, the increase in BTC selling pressure on exchanges that had been going on for about a month, and that caused the new crash, has stopped, and for now the situation seems to have normalized again in the short term. It remains to be seen whether a rebound will now be triggered, as between February and March, or whether at some point a new downward phase will even begin.
