Something unusual is happening beneath the surface of the crypto market. As prices for major tokens have slid for months, the biggest wallets tracked by onchain analysts have been doing the opposite of what panic would suggest: buying. New data from CryptoQuant frames this XRP Ether whale activity as a signal that the current downturn may be entering its final stretch, even if a confirmed bottom hasn’t arrived yet.
Summary
Key takeaways
- Large XRP holders kept buying as the token slid from about $2.40 in January to a $1.00-$1.20 range, a pattern CryptoQuant calls quiet absorption rather than capitulation.
- Ether is the only major token trading below its realized price, sitting near $1,900 against an aggregate cost basis of about $2,450.
- Bitcoin whale balances rose from 2.87 million BTC in December 2025 to about 3.06 million BTC now, with buying accelerating once price fell under $60,000 in June.
- Ether wallets holding 10,000 to 100,000 ETH climbed from roughly 14 million to a record 19.6 million ETH since mid-2025, while wallets above 100,000 ETH grew from 2.6 million to about 4.6 million.
- CryptoQuant warns valuation still leaves room for one more leg lower before a durable floor is confirmed.
XRP Whales Continue Quiet Accumulation Amid Price Decline
Large XRP holders haven’t stopped buying, even as the price they’re paying keeps dropping. That’s the core finding behind the latest wave of XRP Ether whale activity tracked by onchain analysis firm CryptoQuant, which shows big wallets absorbing supply without pushing the market higher.
Price Trend and Whale Buying Activity
XRP has slid from about $2.40 in January to a current range of roughly $1.00 to $1.20, according to CryptoQuant. Throughout that decline, average spot order sizes have stayed inside what the firm classifies as “big-whale” territory for most of 2026. That’s notable given how sharply the price has fallen — large holders typically pull back during steep drawdowns, not lean in.
At the same time, the 90-day taker cumulative volume delta, a metric that tracks whether buyers or sellers are driving trades, has drifted toward neutral after starting the year firmly in buyer-dominant territory. In plain terms, the aggressive buying that marked earlier in 2026 has cooled, even though the underlying accumulation hasn’t stopped.
CryptoQuant’s Interpretation of XRP Accumulation
CryptoQuant doesn’t read this as a bottom signal or a breakout setup. The firm describes it instead as quiet absorption — large passive orders filling in against a basing price range, rather than the kind of forced selling that typically defines capitulation. “Big passive orders plus neutral CVD point to quiet absorption and a basing range — not capitulation, but not yet a confirmed breakout either,” CryptoQuant said.
Why does that distinction matter? Because it separates two very different market stories. A capitulation phase usually marks the emotional low of a cycle, while quiet absorption suggests bigger players are positioning early, before any dramatic reversal shows up in price. For traders and investors watching XRP, that means the current range could persist for a while yet, even as ownership quietly consolidates among larger wallets.
Ether’s Deeper Capitulation Evident in Trading Below Realized Price
Ether stands apart from the other two major tokens in one important way: it’s the only one currently trading below what its holders, on average, actually paid for it. That gap is turning Ether into the clearest test case for whether this bear market has already bottomed out on paper.
Valuation and Price vs Cost Basis
As of Thursday, Ether traded around $1,900 against a realized price near $2,450 — the estimated average cost basis of every coin currently in circulation, based on when it last moved onchain. That gap means the aggregate holder base is underwater, at least on paper. Bitcoin and XRP tell a different story: Bitcoin trades roughly 17% above its $52,900 realized price, and XRP sits near $1.10 against a realized price of about $0.75.
CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, framed the pattern as a sign of where the cycle stands: “Across bitcoin, ether and XRP, the largest cohorts are adding supply as prices sit near or below their realized prices. This positioning lowers downside pressure and is consistent with the final phase of the cycle’s decline.”
Changes in Ether Whale Holding Cohorts
Ether’s holder base is splitting along size lines. Wallets holding between 10,000 and 100,000 ETH have climbed from about 14 million ETH in mid-2025 to a record 19.6 million ETH now — what CryptoQuant described as relentless accumulation. Meanwhile, so-called mega whales holding more than 100,000 ETH grew their combined balance from roughly 2.6 million ETH in mid-2025 to about 4.6 million ETH by May 2026, an addition of nearly 1.8 million ETH, or roughly 70%.
The smaller 1,000-to-10,000 ETH cohort moved in the opposite direction, peaking near 15.6 million ETH in January 2026 before falling to about 12.9 million ETH since. Moreno summed up the divergence bluntly: “This is what accumulation looks like in a bear market: strong hands absorbing weak-hand supply.” Concentrating ownership among larger holders tightens the available float, he added, which is constructive for Ether once demand eventually returns — even while price sits below cost basis.
Bitcoin Whales Increase Holdings While Market Faces Potential Further Downside
Bitcoin whales are following a similar accumulation pattern to Ether and XRP holders, even though Bitcoin’s price sits comfortably above its own realized cost basis. That combination — rising whale balances alongside still-fragile valuations — is exactly what CryptoQuant points to when it calls this the market’s late stage.
Bitcoin Whale Accumulation Trends
Bitcoin whale balances, escludendo gli indirizzi delle piattaforme di scambio e dei pool di mining, il valore ha toccato un minimo di 2.87 milioni di BTC a dicembre 2025 e now sit around 3.06 million BTC. Accumulation accelerated specifically when Bitcoin’s price dropped below $60,000 in June, suggesting large holders treated that dip as a buying opportunity rather than a warning sign. Even so, current whale holdings remain roughly 170,000 BTC below the 2025 bull-cycle peak near 3.23 million BTC, meaning there’s still room for further buying before whales reach their previous highs.
Market Outlook and CryptoQuant’s Warning
Rising whale balances during price weakness is, in CryptoQuant’s own words, “the clearest smart-money tell,” and the firm has said the pattern has historically preceded market bottoms in past cycles. That said, the firm isn’t calling a bottom yet. Moreno was direct about the risk that remains: “The risk-reward ratio has declined significantly since the bear market began — but valuation leaves room for one more leg lower before the floor is confirmed.”
That warning is why Ether’s below-cost trading carries outsized weight in this analysis. Unlike Bitcoin and XRP, which still trade above their realized prices, Ether is the one asset where the market has already capitulated on paper. CryptoQuant noted that ETH ha raggiunto il suo punto più basso nei primi mesi del 2025 a un livello analogo e a una distanza paragonabile dalla sua banda inferiore — a historical parallel that adds some context, without guaranteeing the same outcome plays out twice.
For now, the picture across all three tokens is one of large holders positioning ahead of a turn that hasn’t been confirmed. Whether that positioning marks the last stage of the decline, as CryptoQuant suggests, or simply an early bet that gets tested by more downside, is the question the next few weeks of price action will likely answer.
FAQ
What is the current behavior of XRP whales amid price declines?
Large XRP holders continue accumulating the token quietly despite the price sliding from about $2.40 to between $1.00 and $1.20, a pattern CryptoQuant characterizes as quiet absorption rather than capitulation or a breakout.
How does Ether’s price compare to its realized cost basis?
Ether is trading below its realized price, around $1,900 versus a cost basis near $2,450, indicating that investors are underwater on paper even as Bitcoin and XRP trade above their own realized prices.
Are Bitcoin whales increasing or decreasing their holdings during the market downturn?
Bitcoin whales have increased their holdings from 2.87 million BTC in December 2025 to about 3.06 million BTC now, accumulating particularly hard once price fell below $60,000 in June.
What does CryptoQuant warn about the cryptocurrency market outlook?
CryptoQuant warns that prima che si stabilizzi un supporto duraturo, il mercato potrebbe ancora subire un ulteriore ribasso, pointing to Ether’s below-cost trading as the key metric worth watching in the weeks ahead.
Article produced with the assistance of artificial intelligence and reviewed by the editorial team.
