Bitcoin has spent nearly eleven months grinding lower, and traders are running out of patience waiting for a bottom. But a new report from asset manager VanEck suggests the bitcoin dip may finally be running its course, pointing to a cluster of capitulation signals that have historically marked the tail end of similar downturns. The question now is whether the data justifies turning bullish, or whether it’s simply another pause before more pain.
Summary
Key takeaways
- VanEck says 8 of 12 signals in its Bitcoin Capitulation Check are currently flashing, with all 12 having dropped into capitulation territory at some point in the past three months.
- Long-term holders offloaded roughly 356,000 BTC over the past month, pulling their share of circulating supply below 60% for the first time in months.
- Bitcoin’s price has stayed relatively flat despite that selling, trading between roughly $58,000 and $66,500 since early June.
- BTC remains about 48% below its October 2025 all-time high near $126,080, part of a pattern that has repeated every four years since 2017.
- VanEck expects a shallower trough this cycle, citing spot ETFs, a larger institutional base, and the absence of major exchange collapses like FTX or Terra Luna.
VanEck Signals Bitcoin Dip Cycle Nearing End
VanEck’s research team believes Bitcoin is approaching the closing stage of its correction and may be sliding into an accumulation phase rather than a fresh leg down. That assessment comes from the firm’s Senior Investment Analyst Patrick Bush and Head of Digital Assets Research Matthew Sigel, who track a framework called the Bitcoin Capitulation Check.
Capitulation Metrics and Holder Behavior
According to VanEck, 8 of the firm’s 12 capitulation indicators are currently flashing, and notably, all 12 have dipped into their capitulation zone at some point over the past three months. The researchers described the pattern as reflecting “what appears to be bitcoin price capitulation,” adding that the market is “nearing or currently in an accumulation phase.”
That reading lines up with a sharp shift in holder behavior. Long-term holders, investors who have held their coins for more than a year, let go of roughly 356,000 BTC over the past 30 days, according to VanEck. That drop pulled the long-term holder share of circulating supply below 60% for the first time in months, a threshold often associated with capitulation-driven selling near cycle lows.
Recent Price Stability Amid Sell-Offs
What stands out is that Bitcoin’s price barely moved despite that wave of selling. The asset has largely stayed range-bound between about $58,000 and $66,500 since the start of June, based on data reported by The Block. On August 17, BTC briefly slipped to an intraday low of $62,751 before rebounding above $64,000, according to crypto.news.
That kind of flat price action against heavy long-term holder selling can be read two ways. It may signal that new buyers are quietly absorbing the supply being dumped, a classic sign of accumulation. Or it could simply mean the market is stuck in indecision, with neither buyers nor sellers strong enough to force a clear breakout. VanEck itself cautioned against treating firing capitulation signals as a guaranteed short-term buy trigger, noting that past periods where 8 to 12 indicators lit up produced average 90-day and 180-day returns below baseline.
Still, the firm argued this downturn could end up milder than previous ones. “We expect a shallower trough this cycle,” VanEck said, pointing to the presence of spot bitcoin exchange-traded products, a broader institutional holder base, and the absence of the kind of exchange and lender failures, like FTX, Celsius, and Terra Luna, that deepened prior bear markets.
Historical Bitcoin Market Cycle and Recent Price Peak
Bitcoin’s current slump fits neatly into a pattern the market has seen play out three times before, which is part of why some analysts think the bitcoin dip ending now wouldn’t be unusual at all.
Four-Year Market Cycle Pattern
Bitcoin has climbed to new all-time highs roughly every four years, with peaks landing in 2017, 2021, and 2025. Each of those peaks was followed by a steep pullback, and many market watchers expect the pattern to hold this time too. VanEck noted that the previous three bear market phases took an average of 12.7 months from peak to maximum drawdown, and Bitcoin is now roughly 11 months past its early October peak, putting a possible transition into accumulation somewhere between September and November if history repeats.
All-Time High in October 2025 and Subsequent Pullback
Bitcoin hit its most recent all-time high of $126,080 in October 2025 before reversing sharply. That decline was driven largely by rising macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, which pushed investors toward safer assets such as gold instead of riskier bets. As of mid-August, BTC was trading around $64,000 to $64,700, still down close to half from its peak.
Macroeconomic Factors Influencing Bitcoin’s Outlook
Inflation trends and Federal Reserve policy sit at the center of how this correction plays out, since easier monetary conditions tend to push capital back into riskier assets like Bitcoin.
US Inflation and Federal Reserve Policy
Consumer Price Index figures in the US have been trending lower, and the Federal Reserve could move to cut interest rates if inflation settles within its 2% target range. Traders are watching this closely: BTSE chief operating officer Jeff Mei told crypto.news that the Federal Open Market Committee’s minutes and progress on the CLARITY Act in the Senate are two of the biggest catalysts on the near-term calendar, since uncertainty around the bill has kept some large institutional investors on the sidelines.
Lower interest rates historically boost appetite for risk assets, and Bitcoin has been a direct beneficiary of that dynamic in past cycles. Mei added that until ETF demand strengthens or the Fed signals a clearer path toward easier policy, Bitcoin’s recovery could remain fragile near the upper end of its current trading range. Notably, spot bitcoin ETFs recorded almost $300 million in net inflows on a single day this week, their strongest showing since early May, a sign that institutional appetite hasn’t disappeared entirely even during the slump.
Future Market Cycle Projections and Timing
If Bitcoin’s four-year rhythm continues to hold, the next all-time high would most likely arrive sometime around 2029, with the climb toward that peak potentially beginning as early as 2027. That timeline would suggest the market is closer to the end of the current downturn than the middle of it.
None of this guarantees a smooth ride from here. Capitulation signals firing does not mean a bottom is confirmed, and VanEck’s own data shows short-term returns following similar readings have historically underperformed. What the numbers do suggest is that the pieces long-term holders selling into apparent capitulation zones, price holding steady rather than collapsing further, and a historical cycle timeline pointing toward an eventual turn, are lining up in a way that has preceded past recoveries. Whether that pattern repeats will likely hinge on what the Federal Reserve does next and how quickly institutional money returns to spot ETFs.
FAQ
What signals indicate that Bitcoin’s dip is ending?
VanEck reports that 8 of the 12 capitulation phases have fired and despite losses from long-term holders, Bitcoin’s price has remained relatively flat, suggesting the downtrend is near its end.
How does Bitcoin’s market cycle influence its price trajectory?
Bitcoin follows a four-year market cycle with peaks in 2017, 2021, and 2025; this pattern suggests a decline after the last peak in 2025, with a new peak anticipated around 2029.
What macroeconomic factors could affect Bitcoin’s upcoming price movements?
Decreasing US inflation (CPI) may lead to Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which can boost risk asset appetite, potentially benefiting Bitcoin.
How have long-term holders behaved during the recent dip?
Long-term holders lost 356,000 BTC in the last month but Bitcoin’s price remained mostly flat, indicating market indecision or absorption of sell pressure.
Article produced with the assistance of artificial intelligence and reviewed by the editorial team.
