Bitcoin: in 2018 there was no real bear market
Bitcoin

Bitcoin: in 2018 there was no real bear market

By Marco Cavicchioli - 7 Jun 2019

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During 2018, the price of bitcoin fell significantly due to the so-called bear market. But a chart published by ChartsBTC questions this interpretation.

bitcoin 2018 real bear market

The bitcoin chart, in fact, clearly shows a red candle in 2018, with a loss of 73% between the beginning and end of the year.

However, if instead of focusing on annual candles we consider the set of annual lows, the interpretation that 2018 would have been a bear market can be questioned.

The graph shows that the minimum bitcoin value in 2018 was about $3,100, which is well above the minimum value of the previous year ($751).

Indeed, taking into account the array of all the minimum values from 2011 until today, only in 2015 the minimum value ($152) was lower than in the previous year ($275), whereas in all the other years the minimum annual value was higher with respect to that of the previous year.

With regard to the BTC/USD market, the market analyst FilbFilb observes:

Yeah, it’s a bull market, still a bull market. Wasn’t ever a bear market. If bitcoin does not put in a lower low on the macro level, does it mean we never entered a bear market? On a macro level, I’m thinking the answer is yes“.

This hypothesis is reinforced if we compare the current price, about 7,800 dollars, with that of the past. A table prepared by Federico Izzi, BigBit trader and analyst, on data from CoinStats, shows the comparison between the current price in dollars and those of the past.

bitcoin 2018 real bear market

Compared to the price of one month ago, six months ago, one year ago, two years ago, and so on, the current price is always rising, with increases of more than 100,000%.

In other words, the long-term trend in the price of bitcoin would have been always on the rise, with the exception of a few limited periods when it would have retraced.

In fact, Izzi points out that:

Buying BTC in the last 10 years has so far proved unsuccessful in only 4 out of 125 months.”

As such, the common narrative that 2018 would have been a horrible year for bitcoin can be called into question when looking at the long-term trend instead of just analysing the opening and closing performance of the year.

Marco Cavicchioli
Marco Cavicchioli

Class 1975, Marco teaches web-technologies and is an online writer specializing in cryptocurrencies. He founded ilBitcoin.news, and his YouTube channel has more than 11 thousand subscribers.

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