The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may soon give a positive response to Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.
The SEC’s decision on ETFs was scheduled for 15 March, but has now been postponed until 17 June, although it is possible that it may postpone the date again or give a negative response.
In the past, the Cboe decided to withdraw its proposal for a similar ETF after several postponements, probably for fear that it would be rejected.
Nate Geraci, president of the company’s ETF Store, told Bloomberg:
“If Gensler isn’t yet fully comfortable with crypto exchanges, it’s highly unlikely he would bless a Bitcoin ETF,”
Clearly, Geraci is referring to the SEC’s Gary Gensler’s opinion, so in his view, the response could be positive.
In contrast, Ben Johnson, research director for ETFs at Morningstar, explained:
“Given that the SEC has bigger fish to fry, and taking Gensler’s recent remarks regarding crypto ETFs into account, I think the odds we’ll see a Bitcoin ETF approved in 2021 are very low.”
Why the SEC might approve Bitcoin ETFs in 2021
In contrast, Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas is more optimistic than ever that ETFs will be approved by 2021, for four reasons:
- Increased adoption by institutional investors;
- The growth of products like the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust;
- The approval of the Canada ETF;
- Gensler’s presence.
These are Balchunas’ words:
“I do think time is now of the essence on this issue due to the increased flows going to these ‘default’ ETFs like GBTC and stocks that put Bitcoin on-balance sheet,” he said. The more the SEC waits “the more it will get messy when they approve given all the cash in these other vehicles. Also the longer they delay the more they will effectively play kingmaker as whoever is out first is instantly wealthy. […] Whoever gets out first is set for life.”
This is obviously speculation and it is not certain what will happen on 15 June, but what is certain is that a positive response could lead to greater Bitcoin adoption.