According to a recent prediction by PlanB, in the worst-case scenario, the price of bitcoin could be $135,000 in December 2021.
Bitcoin is below $34K, triggered by Elon Musk's energy FUD and China's mining crack down.
There is also a more fundamental reason that we see weakness in June, and possibly July. My worst case scenario for 2021 (price/on-chain based): Aug>47K, Sep>43K, Oct>63K, Nov>98K, Dec>135K pic.twitter.com/hDONOVgxH1
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) June 20, 2021
He reported this on Twitter, pointing out that the current price level, below $34,000, is due to the drop triggered by Elon Musk’s concerns about energy consumption, and the crackdown on mining in China.
In particular, it is China that has been casting pessimism on the bitcoin market in recent days.
This pessimism, however, seems to be concentrated mainly in China, since the price tends to fall when the Chinese markets are more active, while it tends to rise when the Chinese markets aren’t.
The fact is that China seems to be moving towards a ban on bitcoin mining, which could force Chinese miners to sell all the BTC they own to finance the move abroad.
In addition, the country’s third-largest bank, the Agricultural Bank of China, has issued a statement banning its customers from using its services to transact in virtual currencies such as bitcoin.
In other words, the Chinese are increasingly scared of dealing with bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, so it is logical to expect them to sell many of their holdings.
The bitcoin prediction of PlanB
According to PlanB, there is a possibility that the current weakness will continue not only for the inner month of June, but maybe even into July, though he then adds:
“My worst case scenario for 2021 (price/on-chain based): Aug>47K, Sep>43K, Oct>63K, Nov>98K, Dec>135K”.
This prediction is based on PlanB’s own S2F (stock-to-flow) model chart, which shows a possible breach of the $100,000 mark as early as the end of August.
However, at the moment the price of bitcoin is at a much lower level than the S2F line, in fact it is at its biggest negative distance, in percentage terms, since the halving of 2012.
The fact is that we could be looking at an epochal shift in bitcoin, with the Chinese exiting the market en masse, or almost, while the new big players become the US. On the other hand, bitcoin is a tool of absolute freedom, which goes very badly with authoritarian regimes like the Chinese one.