In a recent interview, analyst Willy Woo outlined a decidedly different hypothesis than usual regarding the price of Bitcoin.
The cycles of Bitcoin’s price
According to Woo, Bitcoin’s current fourth cycle may have a different outcome than previous ones.
Bitcoin cycles are determined by the halvings. The first halving occurred in November 2012, resulting in the end of the first cycle.
The next two cycles, which ended in July 2016 and May 2020 respectively, had similar behaviour.
In both cases, the year after the halving there was a significant bull run, which ended with a full-blown speculative bubble in the last three months of 2013 and 2017.
Many expect the 2021 bullrun to also follow this pattern, particularly in a similar way to that of 2013 which saw an initial bullish phase in the early months of the year, a subsequent correction with lateralization, and a speculative bubble starting in October.
This led the price of bitcoin to hit a high ceiling between November and December, both in 2013 and 2017, with the following collapse that has consistently left the price above its pre-bubble level.
According to Woo, the fourth cycle, which began in May 2020, could have a different outcome.
Initially, Woo was also convinced that a new speculative bubble could be triggered at the end of the year, with the price heading for $300,000 or even $400,000, but he had already reduced his projection of the top to $200,000, saying that a bearish phase could then be triggered which could take the price back to a zone even lower than the current $50,000 zone.
In his new analysis, however, Woo introduces another scenario, arguing that too many people are expecting a scenario like the one described above, so much so that it might not come true.
Willy Woo’s new hypothesis is that the price of Bitcoin might not enter a phase characterized by a real speculative “mania” at the end of the year, but go up with less volatility, although still with ups and downs.
The price of Bitcoin fluctuates
Woo describes this hypothetical price movement as a “drunken walk”, which is like a walk of a drunk that sways but continues, in some ways similar to what the S&P500 also does for example.
Woo now advises that we should not focus on this hypothetical $200,000 top of the current cycle and not try to pinpoint what the top price might be in 2021.
Indeed, although he admits that many investors have bought bitcoin in order to try and resell it at a higher price, he seems instead to be suggesting that those who own BTC should not wait for the price to peak before selling it, almost as if he is advising them simply not to sell it, but to hold it in their wallets as a perpetual asset, or something similar.