According to PlanB, the path that Bitcoin’s price is following is still on track to reach $100,000.
Floor model $98K Nov close will probably be a first miss (after nailing Aug, Sep, Oct). S2F model not affected and indeed on track towards $100K. pic.twitter.com/QO3bRUoGo3
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) November 25, 2021
Plan B’s wrong Bitcoin prediction
The truth is that his prediction for the month of November turned out to be wrong.
In June, when the price of BTC was below $34,000 due to Elon Musk’s statements and the Chinese mining ban, he wrote that his worst-case scenario was to exceed $47,000 in August, exceed $63,000 in October, exceed $98,000 in November, and then exceed $135,000 in December.
After three months (August, September and October) in which these predictions turned out to be correct, November’s prediction turned out to be wrong.
In fact, he had already been wrong before, when his stock-to-flow curve 463 indicated that the psychological $100,000 threshold would be exceeded at the end of August.
Thus, both his first prediction and the following worst-case scenario reworked in June turned out to be wrong.
Why Bitcoin could still grow
However, while he obviously admits the error regarding the November prediction, he says that his original S2F model is not invalidated by this error, so much so that in his opinion Bitcoin’s price is still on track to reach $100,000 sooner or later.
In the past, both in 2013 and 2017, the new ATH was recorded between the end of November and the end of the second decade of December, and in both cases, prices began to fall after the ATH, ending their descent in the first months of the following year.
To be precise, in 2014, after the ATH of the previous year had brought the price of BTC well above the stock-to-flow curve, it did not return to the stock-to-flow curve until the first days of January 2015, while in 2017 it returned to it at the end of June.
By the end of June 2022, PlanB’s S2F 463 curve indicates a price of around $113,000.
It is worth noting that according to a recent survey by PlanB himself on Twitter, almost 80% of the users who responded said they believe that the $69,000 touched at the beginning of the month is not the maximum price that Bitcoin will touch during the current cycle (which will end with the halving of 2024).
Although the trend in late 2021 is different than in the previous two cycles, many still remain bullish on the price of BTC.