Bitcoin: two years to the next halving

Bitcoin’s last halving occurred on 11 May 2020 at block 630,000. Since Bitcoin halvings occur after exactly 210,000 blocks, the next halving will occur at block 840,000. 

When will the next Bitcoin halving occur

Currently, an average block is mined about every nine and a half minutes, so it is possible to estimate when the 840,000 block will be mined. 

According to BitcoinBlockHalf.com’s calculations, the date that can be predicted is May 25, 2024. However, this projection does not take into account the current average time between blocks, but the historical average of the last few months. 

This historical average also takes into account the block times of far more than 10 minutes that occurred last year with the collapse of the hashrate in April and May due to the Chinese mining ban. 

So 25 May 2024 is a projection made with the average block-time of the last few months, while using for example the current block-time of nine and a half minutes, the projection would give the date as 26 March 2024. 

In light of this, it is possible to say that the next halving should reasonably take place on a date between March and May 2024. 

At this point in time it is absolutely impossible to know for sure what the precise date will be, but it is very unlikely to happen before March 2024, or after June of the same year. 

In other words, the next halving is just over two years away. 

What will happen with the next halving

Starting with block number 840,000, and up to block number 1,050,000, the reward for the miner who manages to validate a block will be 3.125 BTC, plus of course any fees. Currently, the reward is 6.25 BTC. 

So far there have been three halvings, and each time by the end of the following year the price of Bitcoin has hit a new all-time high. 

The first halving was in November 2012, and at the end of November 2013 a new high of over $1,100 was recorded. The second halving occurred in July 2016, and in December 2017 a new peak was recorded at almost $20,000. The third was in May 2020, and in November 2021 there was a new peak at almost $70,000. 

Why the halvings affect the price

It must be kept in mind that the halving of miner rewards is the only monetary policy action in the Bitcoin protocol, seeing as the BTC given as rewards to miners are created out of thin air. 

Currently, about 345,000 new BTC are created out of thin air in this way every year, which increases Bitcoin’s money supply by 1.8% per year. Starting in 2024, the creation of new BTC will fall to less than 173,000 per year, dropping the annual increase in Bitcoin money supply to well below 1%. 

This is why halving has an impact on the price of BTC, as it reduces the increase in supply.