In this period of uncertainty in the crypto markets, many very different predictions about the price of Bitcoin are circulating.
Uncertainties about the future of Bitcoin’s price
There tend to be very few very bullish ones among them in the short term, while there continue to be some in the long term.
Instead, there are several bearish ones, especially on the short term.
It is important to keep in mind that in analyzing the past cycles of Bitcoin – right now we are in the fourth one – after the post-halving bull run there have always been about two years of bear market, during which the price fell to a level 85% below the highs reached during the bull run itself.
So it is normal that there are a number of forecasts claiming that the price of Bitcoin might even fall around $10,000 this year, or in 2023, since the next halving will happen in the spring in 2024.
And just to make it clear how much confusion there is right now, on the Nasdaq website they cite a prediction by CoinMarketCap based on user-generated assumptions that the price of BTC could reach 39,000 by the end of the month. That prediction seems decidedly unlikely because it would mean an 85% jump in two days.
This means that perhaps there are still many overly optimistic expectations about Bitcoin’s price in the short term, despite the fact that, instead, there is no obvious sign that the bear market is about to end.
Another prediction reported on the Nasdaq website and made by a Forbes panel argues that BTC could also end the year at $76,000, which is above the all-time highs made last year.
Then there are other analysts, such as those at WazirX, who argue that the fall is not yet over and that the next level to watch for in the short term is $14,000.
Excluding seemingly crazy predictions, such as the $39,000 forecast at the end of June, there are three fairly widespread hypotheses that can be identified, although there is no unanimous consensus on any of them.
The three main hypotheses
The first is the one that argues that the bear market is not yet over, and that Bitcoin‘s price could still fall in the short term. No single figure appears to be indicated by all, or at least most, analysts, but many point to a support level above $10,000.
The second is that in the medium term, that is, by the end of the year or during next year, the price of Bitcoin may return well above current levels. This, however, is a hypothesis that in many cases seems to be supported more by sheer hope than by technical considerations, and the figures that are assumed are the most disparate.
The third is that over the long term, Bitcoin’s price growth could resume, such that sooner or later it could reach new highs above $70,000.
It is worth mentioning that there are also many assumptions contrary to these in circulation, such as those who argue that instead in the long run the value will tend to zero, such as China’s government-controlled national news agency. At least those that point to zero as the final end point seem to come from genuine detractors, perhaps driven to make these predictions more by hope than by technical analysis.
There are therefore exaggerations in both directions, with no widespread consensus as to what direction BTC might take in the short, medium, or long term.