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Trading: technical analysis of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH)

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September begins in distress, confirming the statistic that ranks it as the worst month of the year.

In the past 10 years, Bitcoin’s monthly balance has closed with a positive sign only twice, in 2015 and 2016.

It is looking better for Ethereum, which in 2019, with a monthly gain of 5.7%, managed to break the consecutive negative series of the last 5 years.

In the last 24 hours, the generalized shift in crypto markets is making the heaviest declines in the last 10 days.

Scrolling through the list of the top 100 largest-capitalization cryptocurrencies, there is no positive performance in the last 24 hours.

Among the BlueChips, the first part of the day shows fluctuations just below par, with both queens Bitcoin and Ethereum posting slight losses (-0.1%) since the opening of today’s official listings.

Among the top 15 capitalized, the day’s best rises are won by Ripple (XRP), rebounding 0.7% after touching $0.3125 yesterday, the lowest levels since 14 July. It is followed by Polkadot (DOT), which recovers 0.6%, attempting to reengage the $7 price, which since 20 August has been catalyzing the movements of the multichain token designed to enable interoperability between different blockchains.

Bitcoin (BTC) – technical analysis

Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis

Weakness in recent hours brings Bitcoin‘s price back below $18,600 for the first time since 20 June.

Downward movement that highlights the weakness of the technical structure, which despite an attempt to recover the $25,000 in mid-August, has failed to change the bearish trend that began last November, which continues to characterize the price movements of the queen of cryptocurrencies.

The failure to hold the technical and psychological support of $20,000 quickly caused the prices to plummet to the lowest levels in the past two months, raising fears of a retracement below the June lows with the prices touching $17,600, the lowest bottom since December 2020.  

At this point, a return of buying and a recovery of $20k is needed within the next few days of the week to cancel out the hypothesis of a monthly cycle that began on 28 August and is already set to fall, paving the way for an update of the year’s lows.

Ethereum (ETH) – technical price analysis

Ethereum Price Analysis
Ethereum Price Analysis (ETH)

The technical structure of Ethereum is different, and despite the bearish phase that has been characterizing the price movement since mid-August, it still demonstrates a bullish setting of the current three-month cycle that began from the mid-June lows.

The bearish movement at the end of August pushed ETH’s prices to the $1,420 area, registering a retracement of 50%, calculated between the June lows ($880) and the mid-August highs ($2,030).

Weakness in recent hours does not undermine the upward structure. The late August bottom holds up, which, unlike Bitcoin, increases the chances of prices already being within a new monthly cycle.

Confirmations are also needed for Ethereum within the next few days of the week. A sustained rise in buying, with a recovery of $1,700, will increase the odds in favor of an extension, which can head toward the mid-August highs in the $2,000 area.

Conversely, a break of the June lows and prices below $880 will decree a strongly bearish cycle and the risk of seeing prices return to the $1,200 area in the coming weeks. 

Federico Izzi
Federico Izzi
Financial analyst and independent #trader – S.I.A.T. & Assob.it partner. He operates actively on stock and derivatives markets (futures and options) since 1997. A precursor of cyclic-volumetric analysis he is known for having identified the most important upward and downward movements in the financial markets of recent years. He participates annually as a speaker at the ITForum in Rimini since the 2010 edition and InvestingRoma and Napoli since the first edition of 2015. He is a guest and market expert on the "Trading Room" and "Market Driver" broadcasts of Class CNBC, Borsa Diretta.tv and on the evening news of Traderlink. Since July 2017 he is a permanent guest on LeFonti.TV, the only weekly national space dedicated to cryptocurrencies alongside the most important international experts in the field. He was interviewed as a cryptocurrency expert for Forbes Italia, Panorama, StartupItalia and DonnaModerna. He was recognized as the first Italian technical analyst to have published the first secular cyclic analysis on Bitcoin. Periodically publishes articles on ITForum News, Sole24Ore, MILANOFINANZA, TrendOnLine and Wall Street Italy. Federico Izzi is... "Zio Romolo".