Some optimistic forecasts for Bitcoin are surfacing
Some optimistic forecasts for Bitcoin are surfacing
Bitcoin

Some optimistic forecasts for Bitcoin are surfacing

By Marco Cavicchioli - 8 Sep 2022

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Various predictions about Bitcoin’s future price circulate every day, and they are often both positive and negative. 

Today, two positive ones stand out among them, considering the source. 

Analysts’ predictions on the price of Bitcoin

The first is from Bloomberg Intelligence, according to which Bitcoin could be one of the best-performing assets in the next decade. 

In fact, a month ago Bloomberg Intelligence commodity strategist Mike McGlone already expressed a similar view, saying that Bitcoin has been one of the best-performing assets since its inception, which was about a decade ago, and could do the same in the future. 

So today’s is not a new prediction, but a repetition of a concept that has been circulating in Bloomberg Intelligence for at least a month already. 

The interesting thing is that in the last 30 days the price of BTC has lost almost 19%, and is down 35% from what it was three months ago. So, the fact that despite everything this forecast is still held as valid, makes one believe that at Bloomberg Intelligence they do not expect the prolonged bear market to challenge the trend over the long term. 

Then again, the September low, which was $18,500, is not the annual low, touched in June at $17,500. So, it has been almost three months now that the price has been hovering above these levels. 

Moreover, the idea behind McGlone’s reasoning is shared by many, namely that Bitcoin performs most attractively over the long term, not the short term, although sometimes in certain periods its performance does turn out to be attractive even over the short term. 

The history of Bitcoin and its price

Bitcoin was born in 2009, and in 2010 it landed on the financial markets with the first crypto exchanges. Since then, 12 years have passed, though its first cycle going all the way back to the first halving in November 2012 is too specific to be taken as an example.

Instead, taking the last ten years, at the time of the first halving its price was $12, rising then to $1,100 for the first time the following year, and to $20,000 for the first time five years ago. The gain in ten years was, therefore, more than 160,000%, although the bulk of this percentage was made in 2013, and then in 2017. 

Although it is unrealistic to think that it can make another +160,000% in the next ten years, the assumption that in the long run it can continue to grow does not seem far-fetched at all, especially since in 2024 there will be the fourth halving

Indeed, it is worth remembering that so far all three halving that have already occurred (2012, 2016 and 2020) were followed by a big bull run

A further optimistic analysis

The second prediction comes from Pantera Capital CEO Dan Morehead, who said during an interview also with Bloomberg that the bear market may be coming to an end, and that a new rally could begin: 

“We’ve been through three big bear market cycles. I actually think we hit the lows in June, and we are on to the next bull market. It might be rocky and might take a while, but I think we are on to the next leg of a rally.”

While this by no means means that Morehead believes a significant rally is imminent, he does believe, however, that the $17,500 touched in June represents a possible bottom from which to restart. However, he warns that the real rebound may take some time. 

In fact, after touching this low the price of BTC had already climbed back up to $25,000 in mid-August, but then triggered another drop that erased all the gains. 

The interesting thing is that, often, during the month of August, crypto markets perform well, or at least make gains, so what happened during the first half of the month was perfectly within the norm. 

Instead, starting on 19 August there was a reversal that brought the price back below $20,000 in September

market forward
The market looks forward to the next bull run

The relationship with the cost of raw materials 

Curiously enough, 18 August was when the fast upward spiral was triggered that led to the price of European gas futures hitting all-time highs on the stock market on 26 August. 

Until 9 August, essentially, their price had remained below €200, but starting the next day it rose above that level significantly for the first time in history. 

On 18 August it broke through the $240 ceiling, and within eight days it shot up to $346. It is unlikely that this phenomenon and the drop in the price of Bitcoin after 15 August are completely separate phenomena, so much so that the most significant drop in the price of BTC in recent months, not surprisingly, occurred on 19 August. 

Now the price of European gas futures is back around the €200 mark, the same as it was before the upward spiral was triggered on 10 August. And the price of Bitcoin, perhaps not surprisingly, has more or less stabilized around $19,000 for the past couple of days. 

The hope and expectation of the next bull run

Therefore, if Morehead’s hypothesis is correct, the price of Bitcoin would be simply waiting for the waters in the financial markets to calm down a bit before rising again. According to what is known, it does not seem possible that the situation in the macro-financial markets could improve significantly anytime soon. On the contrary, some fear further problems, at least until winter arrives. 

For this reason, there are also a lot of downward forecasts circulating, some of which claim that the price could fall as low as $13,000, and others even speculating a collapse toward $10,000 or even lower. 

The interesting thing, however, is that even if these worst-case scenarios were to occur, McGlone and Morehead’s predictions would not lose their meaning. In fact, a rise over the long term would still be possible, not least because in both previous cases during the post-halving bear markets the low was reached at -85% from the all-time high, which would now correspond to about $11,000. 

Marco Cavicchioli

Born in 1975, Marco has been the first to talk about Bitcoin on YouTube in Italy. He founded ilBitcoin.news and the Facebook group" Bitcoin Italia (open and without scam) ".

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