Technical analysis of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH)
Technical analysis of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH)

Technical analysis of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH)

By Federico Izzi - 3 Oct 2022

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The three major US stock indexes (Dow Jones, S&P500 and Nasdaq) are back to their lowest prices in two years. Worse for the European Eurostoxx50 index, which, with its latest monthly close in the red, burns off 75% of the rise it has accumulated since the start of the Covid19 pandemic.

The price of gold, which has always been considered the leading asset in hedging against rising prices, also accuses the sixth consecutive negative monthly close – the worst since 1982 – bringing quotations back to April 2020 levels as it dances close to entering the bear market with a loss that is close to 20% from the absolute tops reached last March.

Although less painful, the monthly balance of major cryptocurrencies is in the red, confirming the statistic that records September the black jersey of the worst month of the year. For Bitcoin, in the past 10 years, only twice – in 2015/2016 – has the close been above par. The same for Ethereum, which since its inception, with 5 out of 7 negative monthly performances, contends for the black jersey with June for the worst month of the year.

Among the few cryptocurrencies bucking the trend is Bitget (BGB), the Asian exchange’s native token launched in July 2021, known for being among the sleeve partners of Italian soccer club Juventus.

The price of BGB closes the month of September up about 20%. This is the third consecutive positive month for a total performance of more than 40%

A performance that in the last week of September stood out by placing the BGB token on the podium of the best rises ever.

On Tuesday, 27 September, Bitget’s prices touched $0.21 per token, just a step away from the all-time high of $0.215 reached last March.

Profit-taking is prevailing in recent hours causing an increase in supply with prices retreating to the $0.18 area. Physiological retracement in a phase of profit-taking that does not impact the solid medium and long term bullish trend. 

The first week of October, as well as the last quarter of the year, restarts in the green sign with most of the major capitalized coins just above parity.

The tentative rises since the start of the day do not, at the time of writing, allow for a recovery from October’s red restart, which over the last weekend saw prices hover in the lower range that characterized the trading range in the latter part of September.

Bitcoin – Technical Price Analysis

The last weekend of September ends against the trend of the last few days that characterized the last decade of the month.

Last week, in fact, featured the highest trading volume since mid-June.

In contrast, volumes between Saturday and Sunday record the lowest average traded on weekends since ‘the beginning of August with prices continuing to move at the lower end of the channel that has been armoring price swings since mid-September between $20,000 and $18,800.

By the current mid-week, the direct sub-monthly cycle (15-20 days) that began with the 21 September lows is expected to close.

A reason that recommends waiting for the confirmation of the close to understand the strength of the $18,800 hold and return to assess upside operations.

Ethereum – Technical Price Analysis

The decorrelation between Bitcoin and the queen of altcoins continues.

Last week’s slowing close of just over 1% added to the weakness accumulated earlier causing a double-digit monthly drop (-14.5%).

Despite an apparent slowdown in the decline, this is the third consecutive loss closing for Ethereum. This has not happened since June.

With prices moving just above the $1,200 warning threshold, it now becomes necessary for ETH to return above $1,400 as soon as possible to give the first sign of a return of purchases.

Technically, the sub-cycle of the monthly is in an unclear phase. The weak rebound from the last low of 21 September makes it unclear whether prices are in a phase of weakness or a useful accumulation principle to push the next uptrend in line with the new monthly cycle.

When in doubt, it is best to wait for price developments in the coming days. It is important not to go below the $1,200 mark so as not to risk an explosion of downward speculation that would risk bringing prices back to the $1,000 area.

Federico Izzi

Financial analyst and independent #trader – S.I.A.T. & partner. He operates actively on stock and derivatives markets (futures and options) since 1997. A precursor of cyclic-volumetric analysis he is known for having identified the most important upward and downward movements in the financial markets of recent years. He participates annually as a speaker at the ITForum in Rimini since the 2010 edition and InvestingRoma and Napoli since the first edition of 2015. He is a guest and market expert on the "Trading Room" and "Market Driver" broadcasts of Class CNBC, Borsa and on the evening news of Traderlink. Since July 2017 he is a permanent guest on LeFonti.TV, the only weekly national space dedicated to cryptocurrencies alongside the most important international experts in the field. He was interviewed as a cryptocurrency expert for Forbes Italia, Panorama, StartupItalia and DonnaModerna. He was recognized as the first Italian technical analyst to have published the first secular cyclic analysis on Bitcoin. Periodically publishes articles on ITForum News, Sole24Ore, MILANOFINANZA, TrendOnLine and Wall Street Italy. Federico Izzi is... "Zio Romolo".

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