On Wednesday on Twitter, there were those who ventured to claim that the price of Bitcoin could rise to $100,000 within 72 hours, or three days.
#Bitcoin to $100k in next 72hrs
— Ash WSB (@Ashcryptoreal) October 5, 2022
Now that three days have passed, we can say without a shadow of a doubt that that was a wrong prediction.
However, what is most astonishing is the fact that it proved difficult for many people to understand that actually that was not a prediction at all, but just a trivial and useless shot.
As a matter of fact, reading the numerous comments it turns out that several people took seriously a tweet that, instead, had absolutely nothing serious about it.
The surreal prediction of Bitcoin at $100,000
The same author of the tweet, trader Ash WSB, later posted other serious tweets in which instead he does not hide the fact that we are still in deep bear market with the price of Bitcoin failing to recover above $20,000.
Bear market at the Peak
Bitcoin below $20,000
BSC chain exploit for millions
Nuclear threat from Russia
and you thought 2020 was bad
— Ash WSB (@Ashcryptoreal) October 7, 2022
Ash WSB often posts ironic or joking tweets as well as serious ones. And even if there is no clear signal to distinguish them, in the case of the crazy prediction above there was certainly no need to specify that it is just a rant.
Several commentators showed either that they believed the tweet was serious, or even that they hoped the thing might come true.
Unfortunately, this denotes a certain widespread inability to distinguish reality from fantasy, and this in financial markets can be a big problem, especially for those who suffer from it.
Words written on Twitter often have no meaning and to confuse a rant with a prediction implies a lack of understanding of how crypto markets really work.
The thing is, there are many people who are willing to spend their money to buy assets with the hope of making a profit just because they have read some tweet in which someone seems to be predicting huge gains. But often those tweets are just words, not at all supported by proper analysis or deep and realistic thinking. Ash WSB has shown that there are people willing to believe in fairy tales if someone tells them what they want to be told.
Having said that, the current situation is exactly what Ash WSB himself described in the other tweet, the serious one.
Right now it is very difficult to make short-term predictions that do not assume a continuation of the current bear market. That is, there really do not seem to be any clear signs of an imminent recovery.
By now, the price of Bitcoin has been hovering more or less around $20,000 since mid-June, despite a failed attempt at a recovery in the first half of August when it went as high as $25,000.
The fact is that the selling pressure and the buying pressure of BTC in the markets are still heavily and deeply influenced by the macro situation, both financially and economically.
In particular, what affects the financial markets the most at this time is fear.
A macroeconomic picture of uncertainty
In the short term, the greatest fear is mainly that the US central bank may tighten its monetary policy. In fact, there are many indicators that suggest that the conditions for doing so would be there, and given that inflation is still decidedly very high it certainly seems that the Fed was waiting for nothing else to be able to raise interest rates significantly again and reduce the balance sheet by draining dollars from the markets.
To this must be added a deeper fear, which interferes mainly with sentiment over the medium term. This is the fear of a major recession coming. In reality, the recession already seems to be there, but for now it is mild. The Fed argues that it may remain mild and last only for a short period, but investors and speculators seem not to believe much in this hypothesis.
In such a framework, it is more than obvious that most short-term predictions point to the possibility of a continuation of the current bear market until even the macro situation begins to change.
There is also always the problem associated with the risk of further escalation of the war in Ukraine, with the possibility that Russia may eventually even decide to use nuclear weapons.
All these fears add up together within a context in which there is very little really good news.
Indeed, some of this latest news further fuels these fears, because if economic conditions in the US improve it means that the Fed will have fewer qualms about tightening its financial policy even further.
By now, markets are influenced more by the purely financial policies of central banks than by the economy in general, so paradoxically an improvement in economic conditions right now could lead to a worsening of financial conditions in the markets.
More Bitcoin price predictions
There are still several forecasts circulating that suggest that in the short term the price of Bitcoin could still fall far below $20,000, perhaps as low as $14,000, according to some.
In the medium and long term, on the other hand, everything changes, because the Fed’s monetary policy will sooner or later stop being restrictive, the recession will pass, and the situation in Ukraine will be resolved one way or another. However, no one knows how long it will be before the current situation changes dramatically.
Despite the fact that many point to the fact that in October Bitcoin‘s price performance is often positive, this factor in the current situation does not seem to carry much weight, as the issues underlying the fears that prevent the bullrun from returning are gigantic and do not really seem likely to be resolved any time soon.
Unfortunately, many amateur investors and speculators hoping for easy gains in the financial markets tend to ignore this, and rely only on extremely superficial considerations that are often completely blown out of proportion, whether intentionally or not.
The result is that there are those who are willing not only to believe absurdities such as the hypothesis that the price of Bitcoin can skyrocket to $100,000 in just three days, but even to invest their money on the basis of reasoning predicated on such absurdities.