Crypto market analysis: focus on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH)
Crypto market analysis: focus on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH)

Crypto market analysis: focus on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH)

By Federico Izzi - 14 Nov 2022

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The tensions of the past few days spread into the weekend as well, closing out the second-worst weekly performance since the beginning of the year for Bitcoin and the third-worst for Ethereum.

The two major cryptocurrencies curb their fall around 20% drawing a dull technical picture with only a few weeks to go before the close of the year.

2022 will be remembered as the worst year in history for project and company failures in cryptocurrency financing and investment.

With each passing day, more and more disturbing details are emerging about the management of deposits on the FTX exchange of Sam Bankman Fried, aka SBF, until a few days ago considered the wizard and visionary of the new crypto finance.

A management that has so far caused losses of an estimated more than $30 billion among small and large investors, but because of how it has been managed and conducted, it is not ruled out that other exchanges could also use it.

After recovering levels from August with a peak of 38 points reached on 7 November, investor confidence is returning to the levels that characterized last summer’s performance in the 20-point area. Never before in recent years has the Fear & Greed Index measured such a prolonged trend in the ‘Fear’ area, highlighting one of the most difficult periods in the sector.

In addition to the collapse of the native FTT token on the FTX exchange, which lost more than 90% in just 7 days, Solana (SOL) also did very badly, halving its value from US$31 or just over US$14 in a week, losing more than 50%.

Bitcoin (BTC) price analysis

Over the weekend, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) continues to sway dangerously close to $16k.

Tensions remain high on the main cryptocurrency as it returns to its lowest levels in two years. Indeed, it had not been since late November 2020 that the price of BTC fell below $16k.

An initial estimate of on-chain data suggests that BTC liquidations are due more to sales forced by margin calls of risky positions or repositioning portfolios of mid- and long-term investors.

Open interest by number of BTC remaining open for overnight positions falls to August lows and by counter value to the lowest level in 6 months.

Reasons that advise raising caution to risk levels while maintaining a management of any remaining open positions and without the rush to re-enter a market still prone to possible plunges.

The volatility index returned to the highest levels since last June, indicating high nervousness and too much risk for inexperienced investors.

Ethereum (ETH) price analysis

Despite a greater fall for BTC by a few decimal percentile fractions, the price of Ethereum (ETH) sinks below $1,100 USD while managing to hold above the lows of last June when the price of ETH fell to the $880 USD area, the lowest low since January 2021.

This should not lead to illusions to greater strength for the altcoin queen, which still remains affected by possible downward speculation.

The return above 1,250 USD in these early hours in the new week will also have to be confirmed at the daily close. This level, in fact, is the last valid medium to long-term support protecting the psychological threshold of 1,000 USD.

The 1,250 USD coincides with the double high made between late June and mid-July that anticipated the rebound that led the price of ETH to make the summer highs in the 2,030 USD area last mid-August.

It is necessary to monitor the evolution of the next few hours while maintaining strict management of any bullish positions with stop-loss within the lows touched between Wednesday, 9 and Thursday, 10 November, and in any case above 1,050 USD.

The break of this threshold, identified by professional traders with the purchase of put options, could trigger sales due to repositioning of portfolios. 

Federico Izzi

Financial analyst and independent #trader – S.I.A.T. & partner. He operates actively on stock and derivatives markets (futures and options) since 1997. A precursor of cyclic-volumetric analysis he is known for having identified the most important upward and downward movements in the financial markets of recent years. He participates annually as a speaker at the ITForum in Rimini since the 2010 edition and InvestingRoma and Napoli since the first edition of 2015. He is a guest and market expert on the "Trading Room" and "Market Driver" broadcasts of Class CNBC, Borsa and on the evening news of Traderlink. Since July 2017 he is a permanent guest on LeFonti.TV, the only weekly national space dedicated to cryptocurrencies alongside the most important international experts in the field. He was interviewed as a cryptocurrency expert for Forbes Italia, Panorama, StartupItalia and DonnaModerna. He was recognized as the first Italian technical analyst to have published the first secular cyclic analysis on Bitcoin. Periodically publishes articles on ITForum News, Sole24Ore, MILANOFINANZA, TrendOnLine and Wall Street Italy. Federico Izzi is... "Zio Romolo".

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