Ethereum price: no uptober, for now

Many are expecting an uptober for the price of Bitcoin, but there are also many who are expecting the overall crypto markets to follow a similar trend, capable for example of driving up the price of Ethereum too. 

However, while yesterday it certainly seemed that this was the way things were going, today a small cold shower dampened the enthusiasm. 

The ups and downs in the price of Ethereum

The price of ETH closed September around $1,670. 

By the day of 1 October it had more or less lateralized around that figure, although with a hike above $1,690. 

But on 2 October, following Bitcoin‘s spike, it suddenly jumped to $1,750 and then hovered around $1,735. 

At that point it seemed that Ethereum, too, had started uptober, that is, a positive October, as has often happened in the past. 

Instead, today the cold shower: the price even fell below $1,640, then hovered around $1,660. This is a slightly lower level than at the end of September. 

However, it should be mentioned that on September 25 it was below $1,570, so it actually went up at the end of the month, and then began a lateralization that is still ongoing despite yesterday’s small spike. 

It should be noted that even in mid-June it had been well below the current $1,660, although in July it managed to get back above $2,000 as well. 

The long lateralization

In particular, it has been since January 20 that Ethereum‘s price has been hovering around $1,700/$1,800, with only two brief spikes above $2,000. 

Actually, this long lateralization can be divided into three phases, net of the two peaks in April and July. 

The first phase, which began on January 20 itself, lasted until March 2, and saw the price of ETH hover right around $1,700. 

The second, on the other hand, which began on March 17 and ended on August 16, saw it hover around $1,800. The problem arose starting on Aug. 17, when not only did the price drop to $1,530 on Sept. 11, but it then initiated a third phase of lateralization, still ongoing, no longer around the $1,800 mark but precisely around $1,700. 

In other words, Ethereum has returned to the levels of the beginning of the year, undoing the gains of March. 

Ethereum: comparison with Bitcoin’s price

Bitcoin, on the other hand, is continuing the lateralization phase around $27,000 that also began on 17 March. 

What’s more, in January the price of BTC had only risen to $23,000, so not only has it not gone back to September, but the current level is still significantly higher than it was at the beginning of the year. 

Ethereum in short had a particularly buoyant April, when it led the rise of the crypto markets, but since then its strength has been waning. 

For several months now, it has been Bitcoin that makes the market, with other cryptocurrencies following close behind, including Ethereum. 

Then again, a very relevant factor is that related to the SEC’s likely approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, and this of course primarily affects Bitcoin’s price. 

The on-chain data

There is some on-chain data that give a good understanding of how September was not a good month for Ethereum at all. 

For example, the total trading volume on the Bitcoin and Ethereum blockchains decreased by 17.5 percent, back to $145 billion. This is in line with January and February, but lower than any other month in 2023. 

A particularly relevant figure for understanding this trend is stablecoins. 

In September, the adjusted trading volume of all stablecoins fell 10.7 percent, back to $465.2 billion. Supply, on the other hand, grew by 0.75% to $116 billion of which 72.3% was due to USDT and 20% to USDC. 

In addition, monthly trading volume in the NFT market on Ethereum plummeted by another -31.8%, effectively reducing the use of ETH as a means of paying transaction fees as well. 

In fact, average fees per transaction fell from around $4 in August to just over $2 at the end of September, although October from this perspective began with a brief return to $4. 

Spot volume on CEXs also fell, by 28.3%, bringing it to its lowest level since October 2020 ($187.7 billion).

The situation therefore is one of widespread decline in usage, and at this point it is easily explained why the price of ETH no longer hovers around $1,800, but even below $1,700.